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Trump’s Oil Waiver Gives Iran a Dangerous Financial Lifeline

The United States has a long history of trading with its enemies. During World War I, Congress passed the Trading With the Enemy Act to regulate—not prohibit—commercial transactions with wartime adversaries. The logic was straightforward: Sometimes the national interest requires controlled economic engagement even with nations the U.S. is actively fighting. The law remains on the books today, and its underlying premise that wartime trade can serve strategic purposes has informed American economic statecraft for more than a century. 

The Trump administration now believes we are in such a moment, where it makes sense to allow the sale of sanctioned Iranian oil if it helps to stabilize global oil markets. But the administration’s approach is misguided—and it fails to prioritize measures that could not only keep money out of the regime’s coffers but also promote transparency in the process. In short, its decision will only help the regime in Iran.

After markets closed on March 20, the Trump administration authorized the one-month sale of what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates will be 140 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian crude currently held on tankers at sea, which he said could help suppress prices for roughly 10 to 14 days—though that estimate may only hold if accounting for the previously authorized sale of sanctioned Russian crude as well. The general license goes so far as to allow for the import of Iranian crude into the United States. More than anything else, the authorization is meant to signal to global markets that Washington does not seek to interfere with access to energy flows while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. But the U.S. does not need Iranian oil, and facilitating its sale in global markets will not stabilize prices or meaningfully add to supply. It will, however, strengthen the regime that the U.S. and Israel are currently fighting.

The bulk of Iran’s seaborne crude was already flowing to China through sanctions-evading payment corridors that Tehran has spent years constructing. These Chinese buyers were purchasing Iranian oil at steep discounts before the sanctions relief, and they will continue buying it now. Instead of requiring that Iranian supply go to oil-starved Western markets, the general license effectively removes the legal risk that had at least partially constrained Iran’s illicit oil sector.

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