New Manhattan Institute report identifies four-pillar policy agenda to reverse the urban family exodus.
New York, NY — American cities are hemorrhaging young families at an alarming rate, and the pandemic only accelerated a crisis years in the making. A new Manhattan Institute report documents the scale of the decline and offers a concrete policy agenda for cities that want to compete for the families they are losing.
Since 2020, the population of children under five has fallen 7% in large urban counties — more than twice the national rate. In the country’s largest cities, the losses have been even more severe: 18% in Manhattan, 16% in Cook County, 15% in San Francisco, and 14% in Los Angeles County. Despite some stabilization in 2024, urban under-five populations show no signs of rebounding.
The report identifies four interconnected failures driving the exodus:
- Housing that doesn’t fit: Since 2000, the average price of three-bedroom homes has risen faster in large urban counties than anywhere else in the country.
- Childcare that is unaffordable: In large urban counties, the median family pays nearly 16% of its income for infant childcare — more than three percentage points above the suburban average, while supply remains inadequate.
- Schools that don’t inspire confidence: Families are increasingly opting out of public school systems. Cities need to offer parents more — and higher-quality — options.
- Public spaces that feel unsafe: Safety consistently ranks alongside affordability and schools as the top reason families consider leaving. Tolerance for disorder near schools, parks, and transit continues to push families toward the exits.
The report argues that while cities cannot remove every difficulty of family life, there are meaningful changes that can be accomplished through reforming regulations that drive up costs, and by reducing some of the daily friction of urban living. It offers targeted reforms in each area, from upzoning near transit corridors, to publishing clear school performance data, to improving public space.
Click here to read the full report.
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