Trump’s High-Stakes Gulf Tour – The Dispatch

Although the transaction is certain to face legal and congressional scrutiny, the lavish offering is in some ways symbolic of the president’s upcoming visit to the Middle East this week, which will center on high-dollar investments from some of the richest countries in the world. In a series of meetings with Gulf state leaders, Trump plans to unveil partnerships on arms, AI, and energy. But despite being billed as a victory lap, the president’s Middle East tour comes at a time of great uncertainty in the region, as Israel resumes its multifront war and Iran continues its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Trump is set to arrive in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) on Tuesday, which—with the exception of an unscheduled visit to Rome to attend the funeral of Pope Francis last month—will mark his first international stop since retaking office in January, just as it did in 2017 during Trump’s first term. On Wednesday, the president will attend a Gulf Cooperation Council summit before heading to Qatar. He plans to cap off the three-day tour in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Throughout the trip, Trump is expected to announce a series of high-dollar investments in the U.S., a boon as the country reels from the administration’s sweeping tariffs. MBS floated plans to invest $600 billion in American firms shortly after Trump’s inauguration in January, but the U.S. president has since thrown out numbers as large as $1 trillion. Part of that investment could come from arms purchases, as Riyadh and Washington reportedly negotiate a weapons deal worth more than $100 billion. 

The visit will also focus on artificial intelligence, as the Gulf states—and the UAE in particular—continue to pour billions of dollars into the emerging technology. In March, Abu Dhabi announced plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the U.S. with an eye toward AI, semiconductors, and energy. On Thursday, the Trump administration confirmed that it intended to reverse Biden-era export controls on American-made AI chips, which currently restrict the UAE’s ability to purchase the advanced technology. 

Nuclear is likely also on the table, as the U.S. and Saudi Arabia continue talks on how to jointly develop the kingdom’s civil atomic energy program. Riyadh has long sought to partner with Washington in its push to diversify away from oil, though no major announcements on this front are guaranteed amid longtime barriers to a deal.

Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act requires that countries working with the U.S. to build nuclear power plants adhere to a series of nonproliferation guidelines, which include forgoing domestic uranium enrichment—a restriction the kingdom has bristled at, particularly in light of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or “Iran deal,” which effectively recognized Tehran’s right to enrich. With the exception of Iran, no country without a nuclear weapon currently produces its own uranium, but many, including the UAE, purchase it from international suppliers.

Another complicating factor is Israel. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. conditioned a broader deal with Saudi Arabia—which was also set to include a defense pact between the two countries—on the kingdom’s normalization of relations with Israel. The American demand became more politically difficult for Riyadh following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the ensuing war in Gaza, disrupting the path to diplomatic ties with Jerusalem. But last week, Reuters reported that the Trump administration had decoupled normalization talks from a deal with Saudi Arabia, raising the prospect of a nuclear partnership without the accompanying diplomatic boost for the Jewish state.

And indeed, Israel is notably absent from Trump’s Middle East itinerary this week. The apparent snub comes after a series of developments revealing possible daylight between Washington and Jerusalem. Last week, Trump announced an abrupt end to the U.S. military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, a decision that came just days after the Iranian-backed group launched a missile that hit near Israel’s main international airport. And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly canceled a planned trip to the country this week. 

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have begun upping the pressure on Israel to end the ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip. The White House Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly accused the country of “prolonging the war” during a recent meeting with hostage families, and the Trump administration is engaged in direct talks with Hamas. On Sunday, the terrorist group announced plans to release hostage Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old Israeli-American dual citizen, following negotiations with U.S. officials.

Washington and Jerusalem also appear divided over how to handle Iran and its rapidly growing nuclear stockpile. As the U.S. continues negotiations aimed at scaling back the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, some Israelis have begun to worry that the Trump administration may soften its demands in order to secure a deal. Last week, Trump told reporters that he hadn’t yet made a decision on the question of whether Iran can have civilian enrichment capabilities—a major departure from his previous insistence that Washington will only accept the full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program.

And it remains unclear whether the Trump administration’s envisioned deal addresses other aspects of Iran’s malign activities, including its ballistic missiles program and support for global terrorism. Earlier this month, British authorities arrested five Iranian nationals for allegedly plotting an attack on the Israeli Embassy in London. 

“Any dollar in sanctions relief that goes to Iran under a JCPOA 2.0 without also addressing support for terrorism and regional proxies—every one of those dollars increases the surplus that the Iranian regime can use to fund further terrorism like the sort we just heard about in the U.K.,” Nathan Sales, who served as coordinator for counterterrorism during the first Trump administration, said during an Atlantic Council press call on Friday. 

“The Iran talks are going to be the elephant in the room during the entire trip,” he added. “Yeah, it’s about commerce, but the Iran issue is never going to be far from the surface.”

• Writing in the Washington Post, David Ignatius reported on his time in Kyiv during Victory Day, which celebrates the country’s role in defeating Nazi Germany. It’s usually a joyous occasion in Ukraine, “But for the long line of people waiting to place red roses beside photos of Ukrainian soldiers who have died over the past decade fighting Russia, there is only war,” he wrote. “The scene in St. Michael’s Square, under the gold-domed cathedral, puts a lump in your throat. Nearby, there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of framed photographs clustered in a forest of remembrance. Still more line the wall around the cathedral as far as the eyes can see.” For Ukraine, Ignatius continued, “The worst has happened: Trump has moved away from Kyiv and toward Moscow. But the front has stabilized, resolve has hardened, and Europe has stepped up with new support. ‘We are bruised, but we are not broken. We are tired, but we are not exhausted,’ Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a former Ukrainian prime minister, said in his opening remarks at the Kyiv Security Forum.”
• For Politico, Ben Jacobs talked to former GOP Rep. Bob Ney, who spent 17 months in prison for his role in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, about prison life as an ex-congressman. “If you can survive the Hill, you can survive in prison,” Ney told Jacobs. “The Hill can be a treacherous place, no question about it.” What advice does Ney have for former GOP Rep. George Santos, who was recently sentenced to more than seven years in prison? “First of all, there’s no internet in the prison, but they have relatives that visit them, and the system knows where George is going to go eventually, and so when I went in, they knew everything about me, what bills I had co-authored, it was amazing,” he said. “So he should go in understanding they’re going to have read about him and know about him. Number two, it won’t carry any weight that he was a former congressman. … I would say, go in, be low-key but friendly, be real with people and don’t make up stories.” Ney continued, telling Jacobs, “One of the main problems in these systems is keeping busy—boredom—there’s not a lot out there to focus on. You need to create that type of environment for yourself, where you’re reading and learning and giving back to fellow inmates. And he has to remember that he is a fellow inmate. He’s one of them.”

New York Times: Trump Officials Consider Suspending Habeas Corpus for Detained Migrants

“The Constitution is clear,” [White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller] told reporters outside the White House, arguing that the right, known as a writ of habeas corpus, “could be suspended in time of invasion.”

“That’s an option we’re actively looking at,” he said, adding, “A lot of it depends on whether the courts do the right thing or not.”

Bloomberg: Trump Says NYC’s [Mayor Eric] Adams Came to White House to ‘Thank Me’

New York City Mayor Eric Adams said he was visiting the White House to discuss important matters impacting his constituents, but President Donald Trump after their meeting said the two discussed “almost nothing.”

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Friday that he believed Adams had come just to offer his thanks. The president did not specify what Adams was thanking him for but the Department of Justice earlier this year dismissed corruption charges against the mayor.

CBS News: Mexico Says It’s Suing Google For Labeling Gulf Of Mexico As Trump-Preferred Gulf Of America

What should you do when you come to a fork in the road? According to Yogi Berra, the late baseball Hall of Fame player and manager, “take it.”

Berra, who was born 100 years ago today, is well known not just for his multi-decade baseball career, but his timeless quotes (or Yogi-isms), including: “I really didn’t say everything I said.”

Do you think Trump’s decision not to visit Israel on his upcoming Middle East trip was a purposeful snub?