Meeting twice over the course of two days, the heads of state seemed to get along well—or at least better than one might expect following Trump’s expletive-ridden tirade against Israel late last month, following its alleged violation of a ceasefire with Tehran. During a dinner including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on Monday, Trump and Netanyahu were largely in sync as they fielded press questions about Gaza, Iran, and the region more broadly.
“This is a historic victory,” the Israeli prime minister said of the bombing campaign in Iran. “This has already changed the face of the Middle East.” But the two leaders seem to diverge on how to approach the Islamic Republic going forward. While Netanyahu warned the country “not to test our fortitude,” Trump voiced optimism that the U.S. military operation—during which American B-2s targeted Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow—was one and done. “They respect us, and they respect Israel,” the president claimed of Tehran, pointing to its heavily telegraphed retaliation against a U.S. military base in Qatar following the American bombing. Witkoff, meanwhile, indicated that U.S. negotiations with Iranian officials over the fate of the country’s nuclear program would happen “very quickly.”
Analysts say one of Israel’s goals will be ensuring that, even as Washington pursues diplomacy with Tehran, the threat of future military action—either by the U.S. or by Israel with American backing—remains. Netanyahu is “concerned about Iran in particular, and making sure that Trump maintains pressure on Iran even post-strikes,” Raphael S. Cohen, the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at the Rand Corporation’s Project Air Force, told TMD.
For now, the Islamic Republic itself appears reluctant to return to the negotiating table. On Tuesday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman denied the White House’s claim that talks between the two countries were forthcoming. And last week, the country’s top Shiite cleric issued a fatwa, or religious decree, calling on Muslims worldwide to assassinate Trump in response to threats to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s life.
But while an Iran deal may remain elusive, Trump may be on the precipice of securing agreements to build on one of the crowning diplomatic achievements of his first term: the Abraham Accords. The series of normalization treaties between Israel and a number of Arab states—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco—could soon expand to include Lebanon and Syria, both former adversaries of Jerusalem. “We have already transformed the Middle East beyond recognition, and we now have a chance to bring a great future to the state of Israel, the people of Israel, and the entire Middle East,” Netanyahu said before leaving for Washington on Sunday.
The diplomatic momentum is owed in part to the success of Israel’s war against Iran and its proxies over the last 21 months. Attacks against Hezbollah and its military infrastructure, culminating in an Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon, laid the groundwork for moderate factions within the country to reassert their dominance over the Iranian-backed terrorist group. The shift within Lebanon could reverberate across the region. Late last month, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar indicated that Israel was interested in pursuing formal diplomatic relations with Beirut.
Jerusalem also set its sights on Syria, which, like Lebanon, has undergone a major internal transformation over the last year. The discussion of normalization with Damascus comes just seven months after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to rebel forces, an event helped along by Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah and Iran, two of the ousted dictator’s key backers.
Trump, for his part, hasn’t been coy about his administration’s outreach to the new government, led by former rebel commander and interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Late last month, the president issued an executive order rescinding most U.S. sanctions on Syria and, on Monday, the State Department formally reversed the foreign terrorist organization designation for the Islamist group that al-Sharaa led before Assad’s overthrow. “I think this presents opportunities for stability, for security, and eventually for peace,” Netanyahu said Monday of Israel’s shifting relationship with Damascus.
But Israel’s relationship with the Palestinians—and in particular, the ongoing war in Gaza—risks upending the regional progress. Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, have been reluctant to publicly deepen ties with Israel while the issue remains unresolved. Brokering a deal with Riyadh would “cement Trump’s legacy as peacemaker in the Middle East,” Cohen said, adding, “It’s hard to imagine the Saudis accepting that, absent some sort of guarantee for the Palestinians, because [Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman] has his own political realities at home.”
And despite Washington’s best efforts to mediate a truce in Gaza, gaps between Jerusalem and Hamas remain, including over how far a proposed 60-day ceasefire would require the Israeli military to withdraw its forces. Fundamental disagreements over Hamas’ role in governing Gaza post-war also persist, as we wrote last week:
The question is whether the Netanyahu government will be willing to accept terms that result in the survival of Hamas as a political force. “The big sticking point, from the Israeli perspective, is what happens if Hamas offers to return the hostages on the condition that it will end the war and Hamas stays in power,” said Cohen.
Daniel Byman, the director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed. “A lot depends on how much Israel is willing to bend,” he said. “Can Israel accept a group that slaughtered 1,200 of its citizens to still be politically active on its border?”
Ahead of his White House visit, Netanyahu signaled that the answer to that question is a firm no. The prime minister said Israel would not accept a deal that leaves Hamas in power as he boarded a flight bound for Washington on Sunday. By his departure on Tuesday, the ceasefire deal Trump has long sought—and predicted—had still not come to pass. “We still have to finish the job in Gaza, release all our hostages, eliminate and destroy Hamas’ military and government capabilities,” Netanyahu said.
