On July 1, Pentagon officials announced that certain weapons shipments, including some types of air defense weapons and field artillery shells, would be put on hold. The move followed a Pentagon review of U.S. weapons stockpiles, reflecting concerns by influential figures within the administration, such as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, that the U.S. is stretching its supplies dangerously thin. “This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” said Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman.
But just days later, the administration backtracked. Trump reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a July 4 call that he wasn’t responsible for the pause in shipments. “They have to be able to defend themselves,” he said the following Monday.
The about-face culminated with a statement by Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell that reversed the previous week’s announcement. “At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace and ensure the killing stops,” he said. When asked who had ordered the pause in the first place last week, Trump told a reporter, “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?”
The pause’s short duration means that it won’t have much of a battlefield effect, defense experts told TMD. “It’s not that serious,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noting that many of the supplies put on hold are still in Europe, ready to be shipped to the front.
However, Trump’s promise to resume sending aid also won’t drastically change the balance of power. The pause affected weapons orders under contract with U.S. manufacturers; the only other way the U.S. could get weapons to Ukraine is to utilize presidential “drawdown authority,” essentially sending weapons earmarked for the U.S. military to Ukraine instead. On Thursday, Reuters reported that Trump would be using the authority for a future weapons shipment to Ukraine, the first time he has done so in his second term.
Resuming weapons shipments might not be the president’s only change of heart. Trump has been reluctant to impose economic penalties on Putin during the first few months of his presidency, significantly reducing sanctions enforcement and declining to target businesses and financial institutions linked to Russia. He has also pointedly refused to commit to supporting the Sanctioning Russia Act, a major new sanctions package that currently has more than 80 Senate co-sponsors and support from House Speaker Mike Johnson. But on Tuesday, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, the bill’s Senate sponsor, told reporters that Trump had told him it was “time to move” on the legislation. Trump has also said that he will be making a “major statement” concerning Russia later today.
The size and pace of Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and towns have steadily increased in recent weeks, with the vast majority of ordnance delivered by “suicide drone”: relatively inexpensive propeller-driven models based on Iranian designs, capable of carrying a 90- kilogram warhead.
Russia used a record 728 drones in a single night last Wednesday, topping the high mark it set on July 4, when it used 529. Flying at a high altitude, and then diving down with a screaming wail similar to German dive bombers from World War II, the drones can cause extensive damage even if most fail to get through Ukrainian air defenses. On Saturday, even though Ukraine intercepted or jammed all but 20 of the 597 drones Russia launched at targets in western Ukraine, two civilians were killed, 20 were wounded, and homes, businesses, and municipal buildings were damaged in multiple cities.
Russia has become adept at manufacturing these drones en masse. Military analysts project that it will be able to launch 1,000 drones per strike by this fall, as factories placed on war footing by the government pump out Russian versions of the Iranian Shaheds, called Gerans, for less than $50,000 apiece. Continued attacks, while unlikely to decisively change the war’s balance, continue to sap civilian morale and stress Ukraine’s air defenses.
But Russia’s multifront offensive in eastern Ukraine, launched on May 1, presents a more severe threat. Russia currently has 50,000 troops attacking Sumy, a provincial capital and important logistical hub in Ukraine’s north. Russian forces are also pressing forward in the remaining portions of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, in eastern Ukraine, that are not currently under their control.
The offensive was reportedly billed to Russian officers as “one last push” to break the back of the Ukrainian army, but the feasibility of that goal remains unclear. While Russian troops are gaining roughly 15 square kilometers of territory a day, their fastest pace in years, progress is still slow relative to the massive size of Ukraine’s east. And the cost of those small gains is high: Since the start of the summer campaign, according to The Economist, an estimated 31,000 Russian troops have been killed. “The Russian army has fallen far short of its command’s expectations for this summer,” Zelensky confidently proclaimed Sunday.
But Putin has resolved to press forward. To that end, many outside observers have characterized recent diplomatic efforts on Russia’s part as stalling for time. Trump administration officials have also recently downplayed the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough anytime soon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, on Thursday and Friday in Kuala Lumpur, said he would be bringing back a “new idea” for peace to the White House. “This new approach is not something that automatically leads to peace,” he said, “but it could potentially open the door to a path.”
Experts who spoke to TMD said that Russia currently feels that it can continue fighting for the next several years. “I think, based on the evidence we have currently, it looks like the Russian economy is not facing an imminent crisis,” said Nicholas Fenton, an associate director and associate fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the co-author of a recent report on the Russian economy. Through careful management of interest rates by the central bank and continued oil sales to countries like China and India, policymakers have managed to keep the country on a relatively stable war footing.
In the absence of greater pressure, either from the Ukrainian armed forces or their Western allies, Russian officials have shown no sign of backing down from their extensive war goals, which include mandated diplomatic neutrality for Ukraine, strict limits on the size of its military, and the annexation of multiple regions. Visiting Russian ally North Korea on Saturday, Lavrov told reporters that North Korea supported “all the objectives” of Russia in Ukraine. North Korea supplies Russia with ammunition and supplies, and thousands of its troops have fought alongside Russia against Ukraine.
“If we look at the words and actions of the current Russian leadership, it appears quite clear that they may remain committed to this war,” Fenton told TMD. “They remain committed to their ultimate political goals, which are limiting Ukrainian sovereignty.” He also noted that aside from the Sanctioning Russia Act, Trump currently already possesses multiple ways to sanction Russia, including by targeting financial institutions that do business with Russian firms.
Supporters of Ukraine, then, are awaiting Monday’s announcement with bated breath, as Trump’s willingness to impose sanctions, and the exact contours of the military aid package, remain unclear. “The game, regarding Putin’s invasion of Russia, is about to change,” Graham said on Sunday in an interview with CBS News’ Face the Nation. We’ll see if he’s right.
