Weaker than expected job gains combined with rising unemployment rates and massively negative revisions have sent rate-cut odds soaring with September now priced around 75%…
2025 cut expectations are now back above 50bps (and 2026 is fading modestly)…
This has helped smash Treasury yields lower with the short-end leading (down a stunning 18bps)…
And the dollar is puking…
Gold is mirroring the dollar weakness and soaring higher…
Stocks are lower post-payrolls but were notably weaker already on the heels of tariffs and AMZN disappointment…
So, circling back to the start, is this ‘bad news’ from the labor market, good news for Trump as it forces The Fed’s hand sooner rather than later?
Time for an emergency cut?
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