Futures Rise, Recovering From Friday’s Dump On Rising Rate Cut Expectations

Futures are higher as markets rebound from last week’s sell-off amid increased expectations the Fed will ride to the rescue with rate cuts following Friday’s dismal US jobs data. As of 7:45am ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7% after the index had its biggest decline since May on Friday. Pre-market, Mag7 and Semis are outperforming with Cyclicals over Defensives. Bond yields are 2-3bp higher as the USD falls again. Commodities are weaker with Energy underperforming as OPEC+ approves another supply hike. This is a catalyst-light week with tomorrow’s ISM the most important and heightened focus on weekly claims with the Fed spotlighting the unemployment rate.

In premarket trading, all Magnificent Seven stocks are higher alongside index futures (Amazon +1.8% after a Friday selloff, Nvidia +1.2%, Meta Platforms +1.1%, Tesla +1%, Alphabet +0.8%, Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.8%). here are the other notable premarket movers: 

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) is down 0.6% after Warren Buffett’s company took a $3.8 billion impairment on its Kraft Heinz stake.
• Boeing (BA) falls 0.3% as workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories strike for the first time in almost three decades.
• Blade Air Mobility Inc. (BLDE) is up 16% after Bloomberg reported that Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) is exploring an acquisition of the helicopter ride-share operator. Joby shares are up 5%.
• CommScope (COMM) shares climbed 42% before being halted after reaching a deal to sell its broadband connectivity arm for about $10.5 billion in cash to Amphenol Corp. as it seeks to cut its debt. Amphenol (APH) gains 4%.
• Kodiak Gas (KGS) rises 5% after the announcement that the provider of natural gas compression services will join the S&P Small Cap 600 Index.
• Opendoor (OPEN) climbs 14% as much as 20% after the company regained compliance with the Nasdaq exchange.
• Spotify (SPOT) gains 3% after the audio-streaming company said it will increase the monthly cost of premium subscriptions in some markets.
• Steelcase Inc. (SCS) soars 45 % after HNI (HNI) agreed to buy the company. HNI shares are down 20%.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) rises 4% as management raised its earnings forecast after quarterly profit unexpectedly rose as a boom in US chicken continues to offset losses in the beef business.
• Wayfair (W) rises 11% after the e-commerce firm posted second quarter profit that sailed past estimates.

Friday’s tumble on Wall Street, which was sparked by rising US unemployment and slower job creation, boosted bets for a Fed rate cut to prop up the market economy. Traders rushed into Treasuries despite worries about the inflationary effect of Trump’s tariffs, which have kept policy makers in hawkish mode. 

“We’re buyers of pullbacks and bullish the next 12 months,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note. “We think the Fed will eventually transition to cuts. Friday may be all we get to the downside for now; that is, until the next payroll number or other weaker, lagging growth data is potentially revealed.”

Overnight-indexed swaps signaled more than 80% odds of a reduction next month while fully pricing in one more cut by year-end. Some market-watchers are even anticipating the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points, twice the regular amount. That may be too optimistic, given the outlook for inflation and growth, according to Pictet Wealth Management.

Separately, Trump said he will announce a new Fed governor and jobs data statistician in the coming days, two appointments that could shape his economic agenda. The Fed announced Friday that Adriana Kugler will step down from her position as a governor, giving Trump an opportunity to install a policymaker who aligns with his demands for lower interest rates. Also on Friday, Trump fired chief labor statistician Erika McEntarfer hours after labor market data showed weak jobs growth based in part on steep downward revisions for May and June.

Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sounded a cautiously optimistic note on discussions with China on rare earth flows, following trade talks that further steadied ties between the economies. “Things have changed dramatically in the trade environment globally, not only the US,” veteran investor Mark Mobius said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “People are looking at this much more realistically. There’s going to be a lot of thinking about how to make things fairer for all countries involved.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose about 0.6%. Banks led the advance after UK lenders won a major reprieve in a pivotal UK car finance case, with Lloyds Banking Group Plc surging more than 7%. As noted above, the Swiss stocks benchmark, meanwhile, fell as the market reopened after a holiday, on worries about the impact from US President Donald Trump’s punitive 39% export tariff and a push for drugmakers to lower prices. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• UK lenders including Lloyds and Barclays advance after they won a major reprieve in a pivotal UK car finance case; Jefferies analyst Jonathan Pierce says the ruling is a “huge win for industry” that shows “common sense”
• Clarkson shares rise as much as 6.4% to the highest level since March after the shipping-services company posted results ahead of expectations and reiterated its guidance, which analysts at Panmure Liberum say is reassuring
• Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 2.9%, paring some of last week’s record 32% drop. Goldman Sachs analysts say bull/bear scenarios for the Danish drugmaker “suggest upside risk”
• TeamViewer shares rise as much as 3.5% as Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades the German software company to buy as it sees momentum improving in the coming quarters and says this isn’t factored into the valuation
• Metlen Energy and Metals’ shares rose in its debut on the London Stock Exchange on Monday after moving its primary listing from Athens, although the trading in the stock was relatively thin
• Swiss stocks are down as the market resumes trading for the first time since President Trump unexpectedly slapped punitive 39% tariffs on the country. Roche, ABB and UBS are among the biggest decliners in the SMI Index
• Stabilus shares fall as much as 12% after the German machinery and equipment maker’s 3Q earnings missed expectations, according to Bernstein, while it narrowed its full-year adjusted Ebit margin and revenue forecast
• Auction Technology Group drops as much as 22%, the most since 2023, after the online marketplace operator downgraded its margin guidance for the full year, which analysts at Panmure Liberum said will pressure consensus

Swiss stocks slumped as the market reopened after a holiday, on worries about the impact from US President Donald Trump’s punitive 39% export tariff and a push for drugmakers to lower prices.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities traded in a narrow range, with Japanese stocks leading declines while South Korean shares rose after growing optimism a controversial tax plan may be revised. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained slightly, erasing an earlier loss of as much as 0.5%. Advances in Tencent and Nintendo helped boost the regional benchmark. MUFG was among the biggest drags along with other Japanese large caps including Recruit and Hitachi.
Key equity indexes fell more than 1% in Tokyo while the yen climbed, as Friday’s weak US payrolls data raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Korean benchmarks rebounded as a petition to withdraw planned corporate and capital-gains tax hikes drew strong support. The regional MSCI Asia gauge was set to snap a six-day decline, as investors digested a slew of new US tariffs. Shares rose in Hong Kong as investors looked beyond the Politburo meeting, seeking fresh catalysts amid ongoing tariff negotiations between US and China. Mainland investors also poured a record amount of money into exchange-traded funds that track the market in the Asian financial hub. 

In FX, the dollar was steady after a gauge of the greenback’s strength plunged 0.9% on Friday. The Swiss franc underperforms, falling 0.5% against the greenback having only derived brief support from a larger-than-expected rise in CPI. 

In rates, treasuries pared last week’s gains as traders braced for a hefty slate of bond sales this week. Yields on the 10-year notes climbed 1 basis point to 4.23% after dropping 16 basis points Friday.  Gilts dip but German government bonds are steady.  Treasury new-issue auctions this week begin Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes, followed by $42 billion 10-year notes and $25 billion 30-year bonds Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, WTI crude futures slide 1.3% to near $66.50 a barrel after OPEC+’s latest supply increase. Spot gold is steady near $3,360/oz. 

Today’s economic data slate includes June factory orders at 10am. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Ahead this week are appearances by Cook, Daly, Bostic, Musalem and Bowman.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.9%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +1.3%
• CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.24%
• VIX -1.4 points at 18.99
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1210.36
• euro -0.1% at $1.1571
• WTI crude -1.1% at $66.62/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said he would remove Fed Chair Powell in a heartbeat but added that removing Powell would disturb the market, while he stated Powell will most likely stay on as Chair, and he will appoint a new Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends.
• Trump said he is to announce a replacement for Fed’s Kugler in the next couple of days after the Fed announced on Friday that Governor Kugler is resigning from the Fed board effective August 8th.
• Fed’s Williams said he is going into the September meeting with an open mind and that modestly restrictive policy is still needed, while he added the unusually large downward revisions in May and June payrolls were really the news in the report.
• Apple is changing course and exploring in-house AI services with the goal of creating a new ChatGPT-like search experience. A team is building an “answer engine” — a system capable of crawling the web to respond to general-knowledge questions. BBG
• Apple CEO Cook said he intends to win the AI race and will make the appropriate investments to do so.
• Boeing defence workers are set to strike on Monday after the company’s St. Louis employees rejected the latest offer, while Boeing stated that it is prepared for a strike and has fully implemented its contingency plan: BBG
• Chinese exporters are reconsidering investment in offshore factories as US tariffs on alternative hubs and new restrictions on “transshipment” force a sweeping rethink of supply chain in Asia. FT
• China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters. WSJ
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday the government is ready to compile an extra budget to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs, a move that would add strain to the country’s already worsening finances. RTRS
• The Swiss government is open to revising its offer to the United States in response to planned heavy tariffs, Business Minister Guy Parmelin said, as experts warned the 39% import duties announced by President Donald Trump could trigger a recession in Switzerland. RTRS
• Brazil’s President Lula da Silva said he’s open to trade talks with Trump but only if his country is treated as an equal. BBG
• Trump this week is set to name his replacements for the Kugler’s open seat the Fed and the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. FT
• The US is “about halfway” toward restoring flows of rare earth magnets from China, USTR Jamieson Greer said. A US and Canada deal is also possible, with Trump and PM Mark Carney expected to speak soon, Canada’s trade envoy Dominic LeBlanc told CBS. BBG
• Boeing workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories went on strike around midnight after union members rejected the company’s modified contract offer. BBG
• A conservative think tank run by former US VP Pence is reportedly lobbying Hill offices against a push to make gambling losses 100% tax-deductible, according to Punchbowl.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer said the trade truce deadline for China is still under discussion.
• Canada’s trade envoy LeBlanc said PM Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump are expected to talk “over the next number of days” after a failure by their countries to reach a deal before the Aug. 1st tariff deadline, while LeBlanc plans to speak with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and still sees a chance to ease Trump tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
• Canadian ministers are to discuss trade in meetings with Mexico’s President Sheinbaum and government officials, according to The Globe and Mail.
• Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said they will have a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the week ahead and will clarify in the meeting how the Brazilian justice system works.
• China is reportedly choking the supply of critical minerals to Western defence companies, according to WSJ.
• Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the US is attempting to alter the rules and norms of global trade, while he stated that waiting for a deal in writing might have delayed a levy cut.
• EU said to be awaiting US President Trump’s actions on its car tariffs and exemptions this week, according to Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following a quiet weekend of newsflow and last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data. ASX 200 was subdued amid underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and with weakness also seen in energy, Industrials and tech, although losses were stemmed by resilience in defensives and miners. Nikkei 225 underperformed after recent currency strength and briefly dipped back beneath the 40k level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat amid earnings and corporate updates, while the PBoC announced last week that it is to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds and promote cross-border financing facilitation, as well as strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies.

Top Asian News

• China could step up monetary easing efforts in H2 2025 by cutting benchmark interest rates and banks’ RRR in order to guide overall financing costs lower and support the economy, according to Shanghai Securities News.
• India’s capital markets regulator called for structural reforms to the country’s vast derivatives market, according to FT.
• PBoC did not purchase or sell Chinese sovereign bonds on the open market in July; PBoC conducted CNY 1.4tln of outright reverse repos in July on the open market.

European equities (STOXX 600 +0.6%) began the week in the green (ex. SMI), and have continued to climb higher as the session progressed. The SMI (-0.6%) underperforms as it reacts to the US unexpectedly raising tariffs on Swiss goods to 39% (from 31%); as a reminder, Switzerland was on holiday last Friday. European sectors began mixed, though as the session has progressed, the picture looks more positive. Banks reside at the top and Healthcare at the bottom; the latter is hampered by heavyweight Novartis (-0.5%), given the broader pressure across Swiss stocks. Stateside, equity futures (ES +0.7%, NQ +0.8%, RTY +0.9%) have been firming throughout the morning with some modest outperformance in the RTY after closing with significant losses on Friday. Tesla (TSLA) sold 67,886 China-made vehicles in July (vs. 71,599 in June), according to China’s CPCA.

Top European News

• UK’s FCA proposed a redress scheme for motor finance claims which could cost banks up to GBP 18bln, according to FT.
• Germany’s engineering association VDMA said engineering orders -5% Y/Y in June (domestic -5%, foreign -5%); engineering orders -2% Y/Y in April-June (domestic -2%, foreign -1%).

FX

• DXY has started the week off on the front foot but gains are very modest in comparison to the post-payrolls downside on Friday, which saw the index close lower by 1.4%. The knock-on impact to Fed pricing means that markets price an 89% chance of a 25bps cut next month and a total of 59bps of loosening by year-end. This also comes in the context of a potentially more dovish composition of the FOMC with US President Trump set to name Kugler’s replacement in the coming days. Elsewhere on the personnel front, Trump is also set to announce the replacement for the head of the BLS, whom he fired on Friday, claiming that they “faked job numbers” before the election in an attempt to help his political rivals. DXY has been unable to make its way back onto a 99 handle with a current session peak at 98.97.
• EUR/USD is on the backfoot after a choppy week last week, which saw EUR slide against the USD in the wake of the EU-US trade deal before mounting a partial recovery on Friday post-payrolls. The macro narrative surrounding the EU remains as it was, and that could remain the case with little in the way of market-moving scheduled releases for the Eurozone this week. EUR/USD failed to crack 1.16 to the upside, topping out at 1.1597 and has since slipped back below its 200DMA at 1.1581 with a session low at 1.1551.
• After a wild week last week, which saw an initial rally in USD/JPY (on account of broad USD strength and a dovish reaction to the BoJ policy announcement) swiftly reversed in the wake of the US NFP report, USD/JPY is attempting to clamber off the lows. USD/JPY delved as low as 147.07 overnight (vs. Friday’s 147.28 trough) but has since recovered to levels closer to 148 as the USD attempts to atone for recent losses. Overnight, comments from Japanese Trade Negotiator Akazawa stated that the recently announced trade agreement between the US and Japan is not a legally binding commitment. This has raised some doubts over how rigidly Japan will stick to its existing pledges with the US.
• GBP is fractionally lower vs. the USD with incremental macro drivers from the UK on the light side. That will change on Thursday with the latest BoE policy announcement and MPR, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Within the vote split, Morgan Stanley expects a 1:7:1 outcome with Mann voting for a hold and Dhingra voting for a 50bp cut. Additionally, the desk expects unchanged messaging and an uplift to near-term inflation forecasts. Cable has returned to a 1.32 handle but is still enjoying the bulk of Friday’s gains, trading in a 1.3254-93 range.
• Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD but holding onto a bulk of their post-NFP gains. AUD is slightly more resilient than NZD following a rise in the latest Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower, attempting to pare back some of the post-NFP upside seen on Friday, but with focus also on the dovish implications of Fed’s Kugler resignation and Trump’s firing of the BLS Chief. On the former, it was announced that Fed’s Kugler is to resign from her role at the Fed (sparking a slight dovish reaction on Friday); thereafter, US President Trump said he will announce a replacement in the coming days. Traders will keep an eye out for the appointment, as it provides Trump the opportunity to shove in his favoured candidate to replace Powell, once his term ends. On the Trump-BLS saga; after blaming (and then firing) the BLS Chief for a poor NFP report, Trump confirmed he will be announcing a new appointee in the coming days. Price action today has been relatively contained and trades at the mid-point of a 111-31+ to 112-12 range; the peak for the day surpassed Friday’s high at 112-11, and further upside will bring into play the high from 1 July at 112-12+.
• Bunds are downbeat, in-fitting with global peers. Currently trading in a 129.50 to 130.06 range, which is well within Friday’s confines of 129.12 to 130.21. Newsflow has been very light today, aside from EZ Sentix Index, which printed at -3.7, far below the expected 8.0; the Sentix director manager described the recent EU-US trade deal as a “mood killer”. Commentary over the weekend came via ECB’s Patsalides, who said that the EZ continues to remain resilient despite trade woes, though he added that “the environment remains uncertain”. On the latest ECB policy decision (where the Bank opted to keep rates steady), Patsalides said it would be “premature to interpret this decision as a pause”.
• Gilts are also trading in tandem with peers, holding a bearish bias but with price action fairly muted. UK paper is currently lower by around 12 ticks in a 92.24 to 92.49 range. Newsflow has been exceptionally quiet so far, but all attention will be on Thursday’s BoE policy announcement.

Commodities

• Choppy trade in the crude complex and now ultimately softer following the initial modest gap lower at the reopen in the aftermath of the OPEC+ decision on Sunday and after the NFP and ISM-induced slide on Friday. To recap, OPEC+ said in a statement that eight members will raise oil output by 547,000 bpd in September (some sources last week suggested it could be lower). The eight countries are scheduled to meet again on September 7th, where they may consider reinstating another 1.65mln bpd of cuts that are currently in place until the end of 2026, according to Reuters sources. WTI resides in a 66.56-67.62/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.90-69.88/bbl range.
• Mostly softer trade across precious metals as the Dollar claws back some ground after Friday’s data-induced losses. Price action this morning has been fairly contained as the yellow metal takes a breather, with support found near its 50 DMA this morning, as spot gold resides in a USD 3,345.00-3,364.81/oz range at the time of writing.
• Mixed trade across base metals amid quieter weekend newsflow and a relatively uneventful European session thus far in terms of macro impulses. Little move was seen on reports that China could step up monetary easing efforts in H2 2025 by cutting benchmark interest rates and banks’ RRR in order to guide overall financing costs lower and support the economy, according to Shanghai Securities News. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,635.10-9,696.80/t range.
• OPEC+ said in a statement that eight members are to raise oil output by 548k bpd in September, citing steady global economic and current healthy market fundamentals, while it stated that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on September 7th and sources noted the group may discuss returning another layer of cuts of 1.65mln bbls which are in place until end-2026, according to Reuters.
• Kuwait’s Oil Minister praised the OPEC+ decision to raise output and said the meeting reflects continued coordination among participating countries to ensure the stability of the oil market, while he added that the decision was based on a thorough analysis of market data regarding production inventories and future expectations.
• Libya’s Sharara oilfield reached its highest production since 2018 at nearly 311k bpd.
• Azerbaijan is to export 1.2bcm of gas to Syria each year from the BP-led Shah Deniz gas field.
• China rejects US request to stop importing oil from Iran and Russia, according to Al Hadath.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Hamas said it won’t disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established. It was separately reported that Hamas’s armed wing said it is ready to respond positively and cooperate with any request from the Red Cross to deliver food to hostages in Gaza, while it added that Israel must stop aerial operations during the delivery of aid to hostages.
• Jordan’s armed forces said two armed people were killed after a foiled infiltration attempt through its border with Syria.
• Syrian Defence Ministry said an attack by Syrian Defence Forces in the northern city of Mamjib injured four army personnel and three civilians.
• A senior official from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Iran within the next 10 days, according to Iran International, cited by the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin said, “We’re not talking about any kind of nuclear escalation”; “it’s obvious that US submarines are already on combat duty anyway”. Contacts with Witkoff are always useful and important. US mediation efforts in the Ukraine conflict are very important. Putin may meet Trump’s envoy Witkoff this week. Everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric. No desire to get into a polemic with Trump over nuclear submarines.
• The Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured the village of Oleksandro Kalynove in Eastern Ukraine.
• IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant heard explosions and saw smoke coming from a nearby location where the plant said one of its auxiliary facilities was attacked.
• Ukraine’s military said it struck Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery again.
• US President Trump said there will be sanctions if Russia does not stop the war, but added that Russia seems to be good at avoiding sanctions, while he stated that special envoy Witkoff will be going to Russia on Wednesday or Thursday.
• US President Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions on Friday, “just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements” from Russia’s Medvedev are more than just that.
• Indian officials said they will continue to buy Russian oil despite threats of additional tariffs from US President Trump’s administration.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Jun Factory Orders, est. -4.8%, prior 8.2%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durable Goods Orders, est. -9.3%, prior -9.3%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.7%
• 10:00 am: Jun F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The Extel survey opens in 11 months, if you value our…. … ok….. Too soon. Sorry. Hope you all had a nice weekend. Since we last spoke on Friday, I’ve played 5 rounds of golf as my family were on a “no Dads allowed” camping long weekend in Devon with a number of other families. My back and knees now hurt a lot but my handicap is back down to the lowest it’s ever been at 1.7, 40 years after starting the game. So there’s still life in a body that needs twos knee replacements and back fusion surgery.

Markets may need a little physio this week to get through all the things being thrown at it. August has opened with extraordinary developments, despite only one full trading day having passed. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler on Friday has created an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a new board member. This individual could potentially be groomed as a successor to Chair Powell or, at the very least, represent another dovish voter. While last week’s FOMC vote was 9-2 against a rate cut, it’s worth noting that the two dissenters—Waller and Bowman—were both appointed during Trump’s first term. The significant revisions in Friday’s payroll release have also increased the likelihood that other members may reconsider their hawkish positions. The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 87% on Friday, up from around 40% before the payroll data was released, and market pricing for cuts by year-end rose from 18 basis points to 41bps.

Our economists point out that although the usual nomination and confirmation process for a Fed Governor can take months, Section 10.5 of the Federal Reserve Act allows the President to temporarily fill vacancies during Senate recesses. Such appointments would last until the next session of the Senate. With the Senate scheduled to be in recess from 4 August to 1 September, Trump could theoretically appoint a new Governor through January 2027 without going through the traditional confirmation process. However, the Senate may hold pro forma sessions during this period to block such appointments, leaving some uncertainty about how unilateral Trump’s actions could be and how long the process might take. Nonetheless, it seems likely that a dovish figure will eventually fill the vacant seat.

Adding to the upheaval, Trump dismissed Bureau of Labour Statistics head McEntarfer, accusing her of political bias following the dramatic -258,000 revisions to the previous two months’ payroll figures—the largest on record outside the pandemic. The revisions were partly attributed to a declining initial response rate to the survey, which has made early releases increasingly provisional and less reliable. On Friday, yields fell sharply, with 2-year Treasuries dropping by 27.5 basis points and 10-year Treasuries by 15.8 basis points – the largest one day fall in US 10yr yields since August 2 last year when the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% and triggered the Sahm rule. However, the replacement of both a Fed Governor and the BLS chief could ultimately impact the ease of funding the US twin deficits. This may hinder long-end rallies unless there is a significant economic slowdown. For now, though, seasonal trends in August remain supportive so it’s not recommended to lean too much against it for now. See our piece on this here from last week. Yesterday Trump said he will announce both new appointments in the coming few days. So certainly one to watch.

Looking ahead, the new 7 August trade deadline looms, with several new deals expected to take effect. This date also marks the implementation of recent trade agreements. The week also features key economic indicators from the US and Europe, trade data from China, and wage figures from Japan. A notable event will be the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday. Typically, the week following payrolls is quieter for US data, but given Friday’s shock revisions, commentary from Fed officials may prove more influential than the data itself. On Wednesday, Governor Cook and Boston’s Collins, a voting member, will participate in a panel discussion alongside a Board Member from the Central Bank of Chile. San Francisco’s Daly, a non-voter, will speak at an economic summit. On Thursday, Atlanta’s Bostic, also a non-voter, will discuss monetary policy, and on Friday, St. Louis’s Musalem, a voter, will take part in a fireside chat.

Bostic, speaking after Friday’s jobs report, expressed concern about the slowdown evident in the employment data. However, he stated that he would not have changed last week’s decision to hold rates steady and is not yet prepared to revise his projections for near-term rate cuts.

Among the US data releases that matter, Tuesday’s ISM report (forecast at 51.2 versus 50.8 previously), particularly its employment component, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims (225,000 versus 218,000) will be closely watched in light of the payroll revisions. Tuesday also brings the international trade balance (-$75 billion versus -$71.5 billion), which will include country and product-level details. These will allow for a recalculation of the average tariff rate. Our economists estimate that, as of 7 August, when country-specific rates take effect, the average tariff rate will be 19.6% on a static basis using 2024 trade weights. However, this is likely an upper bound, and after adjusting for overestimation, the more realistic average is closer to 15%. See their piece here for more on this.

Thursday’s US data also includes productivity (expected at +2.5% versus -1.5%) and unit labour costs (+1.0% versus +6.6%). In Europe, the highlight will be the Bank of England’s rate decision. Our UK chief economist expects the central bank to cut the Bank Rate to 4%, marking the fifth quarter-point reduction in the current cycle. See his preview here. Additional European data will come from trade and industrial production figures across key Eurozone economies, with Germany’s factory orders due on Wednesday. CPI prints are expected in Switzerland today and in Sweden on Thursday.

In Asia, the focus will be on China’s trade balance, due Thursday, and Japan’s wage data on Wednesday. Our economists anticipate Chinese exports to slow to 5% year-on-year in July, down from 5.8% in June. The Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday and the minutes from the June meeting tomorrow.
On the earnings front, the US season has passed its peak, but notable reports are expected from Eli Lilly, Palantir, and AMD. Other S&P 500 names reporting include McDonald’s, Walt Disney, and Uber. In Europe, attention will be on Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Rheinmetall. Novo’s report on Wednesday will be particularly interesting following last week’s profit warning. In Japan, Toyota and Sony are set to report. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest energy company by market capitalisation, will release its results tomorrow.

Asian markets are mixed this morning but DM futures are higher after the difficult Friday session. The Nikkei (-1.49%) and the S&P/ASX200 (-0.11%) are lower but the Hang Seng (+0.50%) has rebounded after its worst seven-day losing streak since July 2021. In Korea, the Kospi (+1.04%) is managing to outperform as a petition to withdraw the proposed capital gains tax hike received more than 50,000 signatures, enough to trigger a standing committee review. The CSI 300 (+0.05%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) are trading higher. On the rates side, JGBs are following Friday’s global yield rally with the 10-year yield -5bps this morning. 30-year JGBs are unchanged though, after gaining +9.1bps since last Tuesday. Equity futures are higher this morning with the S&P 500 up +0.38% and the Nasdaq up +0.44%, with European futures also higher by +0.52%.

Oil prices are relatively flat after news that OPEC+ endorsed an additional 547,000 barrels per day production increase from September. A decent boost but broadly in line with expectations.

Recapping last week now, and the lead-up to the 1 August tariff deadline saw a flurry of announcements involving major US trading partners. The EU agreed to a 15% tariff on most goods and pledged $750 billion in energy imports and $600 billion in US investments. South Korea committed to a $350 billion investment fund for the US, including $150 billion for shipbuilding. Other countries faced steeper tariffs: India at 25%, Switzerland at 39%, Taiwan at 20%, and Canada’s tariffs rising from 25% to 35%. Mexico received a 90-day extension, maintaining its 25% tariff rate in the meantime.

Friday’s payroll shock sent 2-year Treasuries down 27.5 basis points (24.2bps on the week) and 10-year Treasuries down 15.8bps (17.2bps weekly). In Europe, Q2 flash GDP showed a slight improvement, with eurozone growth at +0.1% quarter-on-quarter versus 0.0% expected. German Bunds fell 3.9bps (-1.6bps Friday), French OATs dropped 3.8bps (-0.2bps Friday), and Italian BTPs declined 4.0bps (though rose 0.4bps Friday).

Equities saw notable divergence at the micro level in the heart of results season. Novo Nordisk, which began the week as Europe’s second most valuable company, plunged 30% intraday on Tuesday and ended the week down 31.7%, now ranking seventh. Semiconductor stocks were also weak, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.09% (-1.43% Friday). On the positive side, Microsoft rose 2.02% (though fell 1.76% Friday) and Meta gained 5.24% (down 3.18% Friday). Apple and Amazon underperformed, falling 5.38% and 7.21% respectively on the week. Overall, markets ended the week lower, particularly on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 2.36% (-1.60% Friday) and the Nasdaq down 2.17% (-2.24% Friday). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 declined 2.57% (-1.89% Friday), while Japanese equities followed suit, with the Nikkei falling 1.58% (-0.66% Friday).

The dollar was one of the week’s winners, with the dollar index climbing +1.52% (though down 0.84% Friday), marking its longest winning streak since February. The euro weakened by 1.32% over the week but rebounded 1.51% on Friday following the US developments.