A leading indicator of U.S. non-residential construction activity, published monthly by Dodge Construction Network, shows continued strength in commercial and institutional planning, primarily driven by the data center buildout tsunami that is set to gain serious momentum in 2026.
Goldman analysts, led by Susan Maklari, noted that the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rose 3% in September, moderating from +5% in August and +21% in July.
Year over year, DMI surged 60%, led by a 75% jump in institutional projects (notably healthcare and public) and a 53% increase in commercial activity (driven by data centers and retail).
Maklari spotted a major divergence in the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) that weakened further to 43.3 (from 47.2), indicating contraction in architectural activity even as project inquiries moved higher. She said the divergence between the DMI and ABI is due to large-scale data center and public-sector projects that dominate the construction world.
DMI is a leading indicator because construction projects typically take 12+ months to move from planning to groundbreaking; the index is viewed as a 9- to 12-month leading indicator of construction spending. This indicates that all the data center spending headlines this year will move from planning to groundbreaking in 2026.
In May, we cited a note from UBS analyst Steven Fisher that forecasted the Trump-era construction boom in AI data centers wouldn’t filter into the real economy until next year (read report).
“More slowing before reacceleration in 2026,” Fisher told clients, adding, “We expect stimulus and structural forces to drive the rebound, while cyclical factors remain weak.”
Are Harvard economists ever right?
Fisher expects a reacceleration in construction spending in 2H26.
Certaintly, this will be a critical economic tailwind for the Trump administration during the 2026 midterm election cycle.
ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full GS note in the usual place.
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