Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro reached out to Russia, China and Iran for possible military aid, after US President Donald Trump mulled a military attack amid a massive buildup of American forces in the region.
“The requests to Moscow were made in the form of a letter meant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and was intended to be delivered during a visit to the Russian capital by a senior aide this month,” the Washington Post (CIA) reported, adding that Maduro also sent a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping seeking “expanded military cooperation” between the two countries in order to counter “the escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela.”
Now, The Atlantic (also CIA) writes that Maduro is open to a managed exit / exile, as long as Trump promises amnesty.
Maduro would be open to a managed exit if the United States provides amnesty for him and his top lieutenants, lifts its bounties, and facilitates a comfortable exile, people who have dealings with the Caracas regime say. “If there is enough pressure, and if there is enough candy in the dish,” the person who speaks to officials in both countries said, “everything is on the table with Maduro.”
Of course, one needs to view the ‘managed exit’ thing with a grain of salt given the source and timing of what’s going on.
Of note, Trump’s Venezuela envoy Richard Grenell was originally tasked with negotiating a deal with Maduro that would allow:
- U.S. access to Venezuela’s oil and minerals
- Crackdowns on gangs/drug transit
- Release of detained Americans
- Resumption of deportation flights to Venezuela
While Grenell secured early concessions, including the release of six American hostages, Trump abruptly ended Grenell’s negotiations after Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed for a more aggressive strategy.
Grenell, however, had made headway in negotiating a “managed exit” for Maduro.
Talks of a managed exit come amid US strikes on allegedly cartel-linked boats near Venezuela and in the Pacific, killing at least 65 people across 16 attacks, which was followed by the Pentagon launching the largest Caribbean buildup since 1962 – which include:
- the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier
- 8+ warships
- ~10,000 troops
- nuclear submarine
- drones and fighter jets
In short – way more than what might be needed to take on cartels – implying imminent regime change (which The Atlantic is surely happy about). Trump has also authorized the CIA to conduct potentially lethal activities in Venezuela (as if they needed permission).
Russia Ready to Rock
With tensions escalating, Russia has responded to Maduro’s pleas for aid – with Moscow now publicly saying it’s prepared to provide support, including:
- Repairing Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets
- Upgrading radar and engines
- Delivering ~14 missile units
- Possible supply of new Oreshnik missile systems
Moscow is considering this to be legitimate bilateral military-technical cooperation, not covert aid – which would of course raise the cost and the risk of a US strike or invasion, and risks a direct proxy confrontation, Newsweek reports, noting that foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed Caracas’s request.
Moscow’s response could reshape great power dynamics in Latin America and alter the regional security balance. Maduro’s request underscores Venezuela’s heightened sense of vulnerability and its turn to Moscow for critical military backing.
Zakharova said that Moscow stood ready to “respond appropriately to the requests” from Venezuela while requesting that all parties refrain from escalatory actions. Earlier statements from her have emphasized that Moscow acts within bilateral military‑technical cooperation agreements and laws, and that the maintained presence of Russian military advisers in Venezuela is consistent with those deals.
Russia’s involvement would rugpull Marco Rubio’s dreams of “quick regime change” – after framing Venezuela as a narco-terrorist state and a destabilizing force that serves as a proxy to US adversaries. It also means Grenell’s push for a negotiated exit may be off the table, as Maduro may feel he now has leverage to wait out Trump, and/or demand larger incentives.
And so, it appears the entire regime change endeavor just became much riskier for team Trump.
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