Following the last three weeks showing job losses (for ADP’s new weekly model)…
The official ADP report confirmed this weakness, printing 32k job losses in November (far worse than the +10k expected) and well down from the +47k revised for October…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest job loss since March 2023.
Job creation has been flat during the second half of 2025 and pay growth has been on a downward trend.
“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” says Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP.
“And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”
Labor market dispersion is rising with an increasing number of industries seeing losses with Goods-Producers suffering their biggest job loss since COVID…
November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.
Year-over-year pay for job-stayers rose 4.4 percent, down from 4.5 percent growth in October. For job-changers, pay was up 6.3 percent, slowing from 6.7 percent growth the month prior.
While not the ‘official’ BLS data, this information definitely supports a tilt towards a dovish rate-cut next week (rather than the hawkish cut expected).
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