John Cornyn’s Texas-Sized Primary Challenge – David M. Drucker

The senator is battling all of the worst perceptions a Republican candidate can be saddled with in a primary, in a reliably red state, in an era when GOP voters prefer combative populists unquestionably loyal to President Donald Trump. The knock on Cornyn is that he’s genteel instead of pugnacious, insufficiently focused on the right issues, and inadequately pro-Trump, despite evidence to the contrary. And so the senator’s campaign is not about shaping his image among committed Republican voters, but about the difficult task of changing minds. 

It’s also about the future of the GOP in the most populous red state in the country.

“My race is really going to be a test to see whether a normal, Texas conservative Republican can still get elected in the primary. I think it’s important that I win,” Cornyn told me last week over beers at DeadBeach Brewery following a meeting with business executives and community activists organized by the El Paso Chamber of Commerce. “Part of it is about letting people know about my support for the president and his policies and disabusing people of some of the false propaganda you see on social media.” 

“Republican politics have changed. It’s now dominated by President Trump,” the senator continued, acknowledging that fidelity to Trump and whatever his agenda happens to be matters more than allegiance to traditional conservative principles. That’s as true in Texas, the state that fostered the Bush family political dynasty, as anywhere. With that in mind, Cornyn’s case to skeptical GOP voters is that his attention to governing is the best way to facilitate Trump’s agenda. 

“I love my job, I think we’ve been effective, and I do expect to win,” he said, projecting confidence while sampling DeadBeach’s amber lager. (I opted for the Mexican-style lager.) 

Still, Cornyn alluded to the political vulnerabilities his brand of conservatism has created for his reelection prospects prior to our conversation, during a news conference with El Paso media held after concluding the roundtable and receiving a guided tour of the brewery. “I have been guilty of actually talking to a Democrat from time to time—and even worse, working with Democrats when it’s in the best interests of our state and my constituents,” the senator told reporters.

“I’m always happy to work with our Democratic colleagues,” the senator added. “They’re not our enemy, they are our fellow American citizens or fellow Texans.” Cornyn’s comments are smart politics ahead of midterm elections poised to wallop the Republican Party, and insurance against the environment darkening more than would be expected for the GOP in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. That, and looking for Republican votes everywhere, is why the senator traveled to far-flung El Paso, a Democratic stronghold whose metropolitan region is home to almost 1 million people. 

For about an hour, Cornyn detailed the litany of federal benefits and tax breaks provided by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which Republicans have rechristened the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, to a largely friendly group of West Texas business owners, corporate executives, and community activists who mostly responded with praise for the law. The roundtable included a restaurant server who thanked Cornyn for the no-tax-on-tips provision, included in the law at Trump’s behest, saying he eagerly anticipated a fatter paycheck.

The gathering was not a campaign event; Cornyn appeared in his capacity as a senator. But he made sure to slip in a few times that he collaborated directly with Trump to ensure the OBBBA designated border security funds specifically for Texas. But Cornyn’s workmanlike pitch, highlighting his “effectiveness” and ability to get things done, is proving a tough sell in the Republican primary. The senator began the race as the clear underdog to Paxton, despite myriad personal and professional scandals dogging the attorney general and his impeachment and near removal by the overwhelmingly Republican Texas Legislature.

Tens of millions of dollars in scandal-exposing ads later, Cornyn has managed to draw roughly even with Paxton, 63, at best. Some public opinion polls still show the senator trailing—and the Paxton campaign’s advertising expenditures amount to a paltry $2,600 for a television spot that targeted Palm Beach, Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s winter residence and private social club. (The president is neutral in the primary, at least for now.) The most recent publicly available survey, from Emerson College, had Paxton at 27 percent, Cornyn at 26 percent, and Hunt at 16 percent.0

“The primary is very uncertain. It seems like a tossup to me between Paxton and Cornyn,” Brendan Steinhauser, a veteran Republican operative in Texas who previously advised the senator, told The Dispatch.

Republican strategists in Texas who usually have a good eye for the state’s GOP electorate are expecting a Cornyn-Paxton runoff. Like Steinhauser, some I spoke with believe Cornyn can beat the attorney general. They cite the senator’s unmatched campaign war chest, plus the millions of dollars being spent by outside political groups on his behalf. These strategists still believe enough voters will reject Paxton once they learn more about allegations that precipitated his 2023 impeachment: bribery, improper use of the attorney general’s office, making false statements, and an extramarital affair.

Other Republican strategists in the Lone Star State tell me it’s Paxton’s race to lose, and they doubt he will. Interviews I conducted late last week with GOP primary voters attending a forum in San Antonio for candidates running in the 21^st Congressional District primary suggest the Cornyn skeptics are correct. At the very least, these voters—the sort who can be relied upon to show up in primaries, and especially, typically lower-turnout runoffs—revealed why the senator is embroiled in his first competitive race since his winning bid for Texas attorney general in 1998.

“John Cornyn has a very mixed record. When you have a Democrat as president, he is not a particularly reliable—doesn’t have a very good score with his voting and is not the most reliable Republican in the Senate. In fact, he’s one of the least reliable. That’s just a fact,” said Michael Sheridan, a 62-year-old retiree who is supporting Paxton and showed up at the congressional forum wearing a red, “Make American Great Again” baseball cap. Legislative score cards show Cornyn is among the most reliable Republican votes in the Senate. But Sheridan’s impression of the senator’s record is what matters here.

“When you had Joe Biden, and then before that, Barack Obama—going all the way back to 2002, whenever you have a Democrat in power, he really tends to soften up,” Sheridan added. “When you have a Republican? He’s actually quite good, so actually his voting record with Trump has been very good.” On this, Sheridan is correct, although that reflects Cornyn’s willingness to legislate even when Democrats control the White House.

Laura Kirby, a 52-year-old commercial loan consultant and real estate agent, is also opting for Paxton over Cornyn, although she hasn’t ruled out Hunt. “I’m not a huge proponent of Cornyn because he hasn’t always voted on the side of President Trump, who I do support 100 percent.”

Kirby expressed a desire for fresh leadership, even though she believes Cornyn has done “great work” and appreciates the senator’s wife’s strong support for the Texas Federation of Republican Women. Her only hesitation about Paxton is his “personal drama.” She worries it might cost the GOP Cornyn’s seat in November. “But I think he’s got balls of steel, they’re grapefruit, and he’s been great for President Trump,” Kirby said. “I’d want him on my side; I’d want him fighting for me.” 

Kirby’s comment about Paxton fighting for her is salient. Republican voters are more interested in electing politicians who will go to Washington and fight than they are lawmakers who will prioritize legislative results. And, many grassroots Republicans view Cornyn as the latter.

“I just think Paxton is more aggressive,” Andrew Vicencio, 61, an Army combat veteran, said, explaining why he was leaning toward the attorney general. “Got to be harder considering what is happening now, and the environment that the left-wing media has gaslighted on all of us.” And Paxton’s ethical foibles? “We’re not angels,” he said. “Everyone’s got their own little skeleton in their closet.”

When Cornyn entered GOP politics decades ago, he was a mainstream Republican who matched the sensibilities of his party’s voters. Since then, the senator hasn’t changed. But grassroots Republicans have: Cornyn is a traditional, Reagan-era conservative (Strike 1). Cornyn occasionally compromises with Democrats to pass legislation (Strike 2). Cornyn isn’t a culture warrior-media hound, although he’s always authored his own X posts, and a fair amount of them at that. But generally, Cornyn focuses on lawmaking and reports back to voters every six years when it’s time to reinterview for his job. 

That approach has led some Republican voters to believe the senator is only interested in what they think when he needs them. Indeed, a 49-year-old Army veteran who attended the candidate forum in San Antonio and would only give his name as “Mike” told me he’s supporting Hunt partially because, “Throughout the six years, I don’t hear [Cornyn] very much and now, when election year comes around, that’s when I start to hear him.” 

During Cornyn’s conversation with The Dispatch in El Paso early last week, he was clear-eyed, and candid, about the political challenge before him. But the senator did not appear frustrated by it—or panicked. Rather, he methodically answered questions about his opponents and his plans to win anyway, all the while staying true to who he is and what he has to offer. (And after nearly 24 years on Capitol Hill, selling himself as a born-again populist wouldn’t work in any event.)

“I was talking to the Texas Hospital Association on a Zoom call and I pointed out that there are benefits to being in the Senate awhile. For example: I’ll be the next chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which is particularly important to health care,” Cornyn told me. “I do believe that we need effective representation, and a guy who is determined to get as much attention as he can and say outlandish things and try to get the most clicks on social media is not interested in doing the hard work.”

That hardly means Cornyn’s a wallflower. Offered an opportunity to unload on opponents Paxton and Hunt, he jumped.

On Paxton: “Somebody who has betrayed the taxpayers, betrayed his own staff, and the whistleblowers who turned him into the FBI, and betrayed his own family, is not running for the right reasons, and I don’t think capable of doing a good job,” the senator said. “The vast majority of Republican primary voters don’t know about his record. But after this campaign is over with, they will know.” (The Paxton campaign declined to comment.)

On Hunt: “What he’s discovering is what most House members find out—and that is how big Texas is. And people generally don’t know who he is outside of his Houston congressional district, Cornyn said. “He’s making a big mistake because he’s not only going to lose on March the 3^rd—obviously not running for reelection in his congressional seat—I think that’s all going to limit his prospects in the future. I think he’s got a bright future. But not now.”

Unlike Paxton’s team, the Hunt campaign pushed back aggressively.

“This primary is headed for a runoff. When it happens, John Cornyn will be left holding nothing but a participation trophy: bronze, polished, and meaningless,” the congressman said, in a statement provided by his spokesman. “The data has been clear for nearly a year. Since last spring, every credible poll has shown the same thing: John Cornyn has no path to victory. Despite more than $75 million spent to prop him up, his numbers have only collapsed. The more Texans see him, the less they want him.”

When Texas’ Republican Senate primary isn’t about personality, it’s about border security and Trump—not affordability or the high cost of living.

That much was evident from a couple of hours spent watching the local evening news on San Antonio television. In ad after ad, aired by the Cornyn campaign and Republicans running in congressional primaries, the featured rhetoric and visuals were about each candidate’s support for the president’s tough border security and interior immigration enforcement policies, and each candidate’s appreciation for Trump. When it comes to getting this message out in a vast state with 20 media markets, the advantage goes to Cornyn.

The senator entered January with $15 million in cash on hand after raising more than $7 million during the final three months of 2025. And that’s before the tens of millions being invested on his behalf by an aligned super PAC and organizations tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota. At press time, neither Hunt nor Paxton had publicized their Federal Election Commission fundraising disclosures for the fourth quarter, suggesting they don’t have much to brag about.

But as Cornyn emphasized to me while hustling out of the brewery to a waiting car, Trump has the power to tilt the outcome of his primary. Although the president has so far declined to endorse in this race despite his and Thune’s best efforts, Cornyn is hopeful that will change and that he’ll pick up Trump’s support in the runoff. He noted that his campaign pollster is Trump confidant Tony Fabrizio, and that his super PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, is advised by another Trump heavy, GOP strategist Chris LaCivita. 

Cornyn might ultimately win the president’s endorsement with this argument: He’s about as close to a guarantee in the general election as exists among him, Hunt, and Paxton—regardless of whether any blue wave that might develop this fall is big enough to crash in Texas. On this front, Paxton and his scandals could be a legitimate vulnerability for the party. (The Democratic Senate primary features Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Sen. James Talarico.)

“One of the things the president could decide to do is, after the primary on March the 3^rd, he could get involved then,” Cornyn said. “And, as I’ve told him, once he makes an endorsement, I said that basically, the race is over, and he knows that.”