The second week of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is coming to a close, with no visible off-ramp yet emerging, even as the White House continues to project victory. Goldman now expects the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to persist for three weeks, a timeline that suggests further intensification of what the IEA has already described as an unprecedented global energy shock.
Focusing on the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, data from UBS and Goldman desks show that flows through the critical waterway remain muted by the end of the week.
Current situation in the Hormuz and Gulf area:
Oil & gas tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships, entering and exiting the Gulf
Crude loadings by ports in the Middle East (Mb/d)
Iran’s crude loadings by port (Mb/d)
Map of oil & gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf
Iranian attacks on vessels (direct & attempted)
Map of ships’ locations when struck in the Gulf region since early March
Summary of attacks on energy infrastructure
In addition to UBS, Goldman’s tracking of Persian Gulf exports also shows limited activity through the strait.
The estimated total hit to oil flows from the Persian Gulf stands at 16 mb/d (16 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russian oil production).
According to S&P Global, only 22 tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz since March 1, with most tankers operating with AIS signals off.
With an incoming energy shock, the analysts show which countries have the largest buffers, as well as the countries with the least.
Details on the 32-nation IEA SPR dump.
Both notes only suggest that paralysis in the critical waterway is set to persist into next week. Even if the IRGC’s conventional military capabilities have been severely degraded, the more immediate threat to commercial vessel traffic in the waterway is the IRGC’s asymmetric warfare, which includes low-cost kamikaze drones and naval mines.
More in the full notes available to pro subs.
