Last year, I argued that the decline in college enrollment throughout the 2010s was a correction, not a crisis. This is because almost all of the decline occurred at low-quality colleges—those with poor graduation rates and loan repayment outcomes—which students would probably be better off avoiding. Between 2010 and 2023, the number of students seeking degrees at the worst tranche of colleges dropped by nearly half, while student numbers at the best schools actually increased.
The National Center for Education Statistics recently published enrollment figures by institution for fall 2024, so I updated my analysis with the new data, hoping to see a continuation of past trends. Enrollment at the lowest-quality schools remains well below its apogee in fall 2010. However, there are troubling signs of a comeback.
Enrollment at the worst fifth of institutions reached a nadir in fall 2022. Since then, student numbers at the lowest-quality schools have risen by over 120,000. The University of Phoenix, a for-profit megaschool in the bottom quintile of student outcomes, added nearly 19,000 degree-seeking undergraduates between 2022 and 2024. Enrollment grew at high-quality institutions as well, reflecting a broader rebound in college enrollment, but the rise at lower-quality institutions remains concerning.
To classify institutions by quality, I rely on student outcomes data from the early 2010s, when my period of analysis begins. It is possible some schools classified as low-quality have improved their outcomes and no longer deserve to be in the bottom quintile. To examine this possibility, I re-ran the analysis classifying schools according to their outcomes as reported in the most recent edition of the College Scorecard, and evaluated only the last two years of enrollment changes.
By this updated measure, the recent rise in college enrollment looks even more skewed towards lower-quality institutions. The worst quintile of colleges increased total enrollment by six percent between fall 2022 and fall 2024, as did the second-worst quintile. Enrollment at top-quality schools rose at around half that rate.
This is also concerning because bottom-quintile colleges remain a poor deal for students. According to the most recent outcomes data, students attending schools in the bottom quintile complete their programs at a rate of 26 percent and repay their student loans at a rate of 31 percent. Former students of bottom-quintile schools earn around $32,400 six years after enrollment—comparable to the earnings of workers with only a high school diploma.
Consumer choice is a powerful tool: students were fleeing low-quality colleges and reshaping the higher education system long before regulators caught on. But the rebound in enrollment at low-quality institutions is a sign that policymakers still have a role to play in holding federally-funded colleges accountable for poor outcomes. Otherwise, student numbers at bad schools may continue to climb—meaning a whole new generation could have to deal with the fallout of broken promises.
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