Denmark’s Parliament recently approved an increase in the retirement age for its Social Security program. Under the new legislation, the retirement age will rise from 67 to 68 in 2030 for those born in 1963, to 69 in 2035 for those born in 1967, and to 70 in 2040 for those born in 1971. Although trade unions objected to the change as unfair to blue-collar workers, the vote in the Folketing was overwhelmingly in favor, and protests were muted—especially compared to the recent unrest in France, where an increase from 62 to 64 shut down the country and was pushed through by the government without a legislative vote.
In Denmark, there is a general understanding that the retirement age should be closely tied to life expectancy. Even blue-collar workers have experienced increases in life expectancy and, over the course of their careers, can shift into less physically demanding roles to accommodate age-related declines in strength and rising retirement ages. By contrast, in the United States, the Social Security full retirement age is currently 67 for those born in 1960 or later and is not scheduled to increase—despite many proposals to do so—largely due to bipartisan political concerns about the impact on blue-collar workers. Comparing US and Danish male and female life expectancies over several decades (to smooth out slowdowns and accelerations to better gage reliable trends) at retirement-relevant ages of 50 and 65 (see table below), what would the scheduled future retirement age in the US be if it were aligned with life expectancy changes—the Danish policy approach?
As shown, life expectancy in the US at age 50 increased from 22.67 years in 1951 to 30.07 in 2024 for men—an average annual increase of 0.10 years—and from 26.61 to 33.57 for women, also an annual increase of 0.10 years. At age 65, the gains were somewhat slower, rising from 12.84 to 18.23 for men and from 15.15 to 20.80 for women. In Denmark, life expectancy at age 50 increased from 25.36 years in 1951 to 31.43 in 2024 for men—an annual increase of 0.08 years, a slightly lower rate of improvement than in the US—and from 26.86 to 34.75 for women, an annual increase of 0.11 years, slightly higher than in the US. At age 65, the pattern in Denmark mirrors that of the US, with slower gains than at age 50 and, for men, smaller overall increase than in the US Moreover, when comparing life expectancies between Denmark and the US over the entire period, Denmark’s advantage for men has narrowed at both ages 50 and 65, while it has widened for women. Given the broadly comparable improvements in life expectancy at the retirement-relevant ages in the US and Denmark—and the near identical current expectancies at age 65—it would be entirely reasonable to gradually raise the Social Security full retirement age to 70 in the US as well.
Looked at in another way, in 2024, the life expectancy at 50—a reasonable age to begin serious retirement planning—for someone born in 1974 is 30.07 for men and 33.57 for women in the US. In that context, a full retirement age of 70 would still provide a decade or more of work-free retirement, a reasonable prospect and more years than retirees in 1951 could expect, despite the retirement age then being 65. Such a change is appropriate given the need to shore up the finances of the Social Security program and to boost labor force participation in an economy and society facing demographic headwinds—declining birth rates and population aging.
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