After Boomers and Gen X dragged The Conference Board Confidence measure down to eight month lows to end 2025, expectations were for a rebound to start 2026.
But, reality was far worse with the headline plunging from 94.2 (revised up from 89.1) to 84.5 (well below the 91.0 expected) – the lowest since May 2014.
The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – plummeted by 9.9 points to 113.7 in January (from an upwardly revised 123.6).
The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – tumbled to 65.1 (from 74.6).
Source: Bloomberg
The Expectations Index has now tracked under 80 for 12 consecutive months, the threshold below which the gauge signals recession ahead.
Under the hood, The Conference Board survey shows the trend of a weaker labor market continued to accelerate…
Source: Bloomberg
So, the stock market soars near record highs, GDP is ripping, but consumer sentiment is collapsing?
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