from the the-thoughts-and-prayers-aren’t-working dept
On Thursday, literally the day before flash flooding devastated Texas, the Texas Observer published an article warning that “Trump’s DOGE Cuts Are a Texas-Sized Disaster,” explaining how cuts to both the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) would likely lead to disaster for Texas.
Twenty-four hours later, those predictions came true with horrifying precision. And as with so many tragic situations, rather than examining how their own policies contributed to the death toll, Republican politicians are talking about prayers, as if that’s the only thing that can be done. Texas’s Governor Abbott announced a day of prayer, claiming that “prayer works.” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson claimed that “all we know to do at this moment is pray.”
Turns out there were, perhaps, a few more things that “we” could have done, including better staffing, better warning systems, and better preparations for how to deal with flooding.
The Texas Observer’s warning (again, from a day before the floods came) was chillingly specific:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the country’s central weather hub, provides the analysis undergirding forecasts of wildfires, severe storms, and heavy rain events, and its observation systems (high-altitude balloons, aircraft, satellites, ocean buoys) provide the data required to support this activity. When you watch TV weather or get a fire warning, it is largely an NOAA product.
Consistent with its aversion to talk of climate change, the administration’s policy guide, Project 2025, recommends dismantling NOAA. Those functions not eliminated would be scattered among other agencies, privatized, or sent to the states. This has not happened yet, but DOGE has fired many of NOAA’s scientists, and there are suggestions its Oklahoma Storm Prediction Center will be closed. Also, crucial data gathering systems are at risk. Federal ability to warn the public is being degraded, and it is a public service no state can replace.
The piece also warned about FEMA cuts, something that I imagine is going to be talked about a lot in the coming days, weeks, and months.
DOGE already cut roughly 20 percent of FEMA’s staff and moved to freeze its funds. And Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled his interest in shifting disaster relief responsibilities entirely to the states. On June 11, he made that threat more concrete by saying that his administration would start phasing out FEMA after this current hurricane season ends in November. “We want to wean off of FEMA, and we want to bring it down to the state level,” Trump said. “A governor should be able to handle it, and frankly, if they can’t handle it, the aftermath, then maybe they shouldn’t be governor.”
That, of course, would be bad news for Texas, where Republican leaders routinely play politics with disaster response and relief. Further warming in response to continuing greenhouse emissions ensures that the cost of climate change-augmented storms, floods, and wildfires will only increase with Texans prominent among the victims.
The Policy Cuts Hit Exactly Where They Hurt Most
The NY Times reported that, indeed, the National Weather Service’s local offices in Texas were understaffed, which may have contributed to the lack of preparedness for the floods.
The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.
The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.
That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure.
Yes, that’s right. The person in charge of “warning coordination” took one of the DOGE buyouts just a couple months ago.
Some (including the White House) are saying that the lack of staffing at the NWS had nothing to do with this, given that the flood warnings were still issued. But issuing a warning is only the first step. The missing staff would have helped coordinate the response as conditions deteriorated:
The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said — the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.
The local infrastructure was equally lacking. Kerr County, where many deaths occurred, had no local flood warning system:
The shortages are among the factors likely to be scrutinized as the death toll climbs from the floods. Separate questions have emerged about the preparedness of local communities, including Kerr County’s apparent lack of a local flood warning system. The county, roughly 50 miles northwest of San Antonio, is where many of the deaths occurred.
In an interview, Rob Kelly, the Kerr County judge and its most senior elected official, said the county did not have a warning system because such systems are expensive, and local residents are resistant to new spending.
Emergency Communications Reduced To A Broken Social Media Platform
Perhaps most damning is how government agencies handled public warnings. A report from NPR shows that most of the warnings appeared to be posted on ExTwitter, a platform that has shed users, is increasingly buggy, and requires an account to view most content.
Think about the absurdity: in a life-or-death emergency, government agencies are relying on a social media platform that many people can’t even access without creating an account. This is what happens when public infrastructure gets hollowed out—essential services get outsourced to private, proprietary platforms that may or may not work when you need them most.
The timeline NPR put together shows over and over again that the remaining folks at the NWS seemed to rely on ExTwitter as their main tool for getting word out:
At 9:47 a.m. Texas Division of Emergency Management posted on X weather guidance in both English and Spanish, informing followers about what to do in a flood, adding: “As we head into the holiday weekend and the flood threat in West & Central TX continues, stay weather aware!”
[….]
At 3:35 p.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio announced a flood watch on X, saying “pockets of heavy rain are expected and may result in flooding.” A flood watch is used when the weather conditions make a flood possible but it does not mean a flood will occur.
Friday, July 4th:
At 12:42 a.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio posted on X upgrading its flood watch to a flood warning for part of the impacted area. In a post from 2:14 a.m., that area was expanded. A flood warning occurs when flooding is imminent or already happening.
At 1:26 a.m., the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center said “flash flooding likely overnight with significant impacts possible.” This message was posted on X a minute later.
When Prayer Becomes Policy Deflection
The politicians now calling for “thoughts and prayers” are the same ones who systematically dismantled the infrastructure that could have saved lives. They cut the staff who coordinate flood warnings. They pushed out the meteorologists who work with local emergency managers. They eliminated the positions specifically designed to help communities prepare for exactly this kind of disaster.
Then, when people die, they call for prayer.
This isn’t about whether natural disasters happen—they do. It’s about how humans determine just how catastrophic they become. The Texas Observer saw this coming from a mile away, almost down to the day. The staffing cuts hit exactly where they would hurt most. The warning systems were reduced to posts on a social media platform many people can’t access.
Every “thoughts and prayers” statement is an attempt to avoid this discussion. It’s an attempt to treat preventable deaths as acts of God rather than consequences of policy choices. The Texas flooding wasn’t unpredictable—it was predicted. The infrastructure failures weren’t unavoidable—they were the direct result of deliberate budget cuts and dismissals.
Natural disasters happen. But the scale of human tragedy is often a choice. And when politicians choose to gut disaster preparedness and then deflect responsibility through prayer, they’re making that choice clear.
Filed Under: donald trump, fema, flash floods, hill country, noaa, nws, texas, warnings
