A recent incident in Polish airspace involving at least three Russian drones has inspired hysteria in greater Europe (stoked by EU politicians and the media). The event, which involved what appear to be Russian reconnaissance drones, is similar to previous incidents of purported Russian UAVs shot down after crossing into NATO skies. No attacks, no casualties and no clear intent of invasion.
However, the presence of these drones in Polish skies, even if their flight path was only meant to take them to Ukraine, is enough to fuel European calls for possible escalation. The EU and UK continue to insist on deployment of “peace keeping” troops to intervene in the Ukraine war, with France, Germany and Britain suggesting boots on the ground to reinforce the now faltering Ukrainian front lines.
The Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, asserts that the drone incursion is part of a Russian plot to “test NATO reactions without triggering a full scale war”. The Polish claim that at least 19 drones were involved in the incursion and that the devices had traveled “hundreds of miles” before they were intercepted. Only three to four drones are confirmed to have been shot down.
This means that either Poland has possibly the worst air defenses in NATO, or, the reported number of drones is greatly inflated.
“The drones didn’t reach their targets and there was minor damage to property, nobody was hurt. If it happened in Ukraine, by Ukrainian definitions, that would be regarded as a 100% success,” Silorski said. But the drones had no ordnance attached and there is no evidence that they were targeting anything or anyone.
As President Donald Trump noted, the crossing into Poland was more likely a mistake. This response has angered the Europeans, who are desperate for US involvement in the war.
Poland’s response has set the country on “high alert”. Troops have been reinforced and the border with Belarus has been closed. The government is now sponsoring voluntary military training for civilians. Open to the public, the training has attracted over 20,000 recruits including Polish mothers, who say they want to “protect their children”.
The idea is logical enough, though the deployment of women for front line combat is generally an act of desperation rather than sound strategic policy. It is interesting that a country which practices strict gun control and eligibility requirements for citizens is suddenly so interested in using those citizens as a militia reserve against a hypothetical Russian invasion. Ukraine suffered from similar restrictions on its citizens before they were invaded and this stunted their defensive capabilities.
EU officials say the drone event is an “aggressive, reckless act” and is “part of a serious escalation by Russia,” only reinforcing the bloc’s “support and resolve to support Ukraine.” The problem, though, is a matter off logistical realities.
Europe’s contributions to NATO defenses are minimal and the vast majority of military spending has long been covered by US taxpayers. Europe’s ability to manufacture the weapons needed to fight a prolonged conflict with Russia is next to nil and the means to supply their forces with enough equipment and resources to engage in an attrition war does not exist.
The US military is the only force with the resources to manage a long term war in Ukraine, which is why the EU continues to demand that the Trump Administration commit to escalation. European officials have been encouraging Volodymyr Zelensky’s ambitions to take back lost Ukrainian territory with talk of potential EU troops. This has extended the life of the war and sabotaged efforts to organize diplomatic talks.
Currently, Russian forces are surging on the Eastern front and Ukraine is facing the loss of the entire Donbas region. Central Ukraine is also at risk as Ukrainian troop strength dwindles. Analysts outside of typical western propaganda networks argue that Ukraine is facing a total loss unless a resolution is achieved in the near future.
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