As we have noted numerous times in the last week or two, inflation fears are back (or rather stagflation) as growth stagnates and prices re-accelerate…
This morning we get yet more confirmation of the second wave of inflation as US Import/Export prices blew expectations away…
US Import prices jumped by 1.5% MoM (the third monthly rise in a row) – the biggest MoM jump since March 2022.
The acceleration in prices pushed import costs up 1.3% YoY – highest since Feb 2025.
Under the hood, Petroleum, Mining, and Non-manufactured articles were the biggest drivers of the MoM surge in import prices…
Canadian non-manufactured articles rose the most…
Export prices surged 1.5% MoM – the biggest jump since March 2022 (Russia-Ukraine war) with prices up 3.5% YoY (highest since Sept 2025)
Under the hood, Industrial supplies and Fuels & Lubricants dominated export price hikes…
…and this data is from before the war even started, so expect rate-change odds to shift more hawkish (having already erased any expectations of a cut in 2026).
