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G7 Leaders Confront a Changing World

In the past, Trump has had a rocky relationship with the G7. At the last Canadian G7, in 2018, he left early, refused to sign onto the joint communique that traditionally showcases participants’ agreement on key issues, and got into an argument with then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel (in the process generating one of the defining photos of his first term).

This year’s G7 summit got off to a smoother start—sort of. The G7 “is nothing without U.S. leadership,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a joint press conference with Trump before a one-hour closed-door meeting. He would later call the private meeting between them “fantastic.”

But the differences of opinion between the U.S. president and the other G7 members quickly became apparent, particularly on a hot-button issue for Canada and its European allies: Russia. “The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau [Canada’s former prime minister] didn’t want to have Russia in,” Trump said of the decision to expel Russia from the organization after its invasion of Crimea in 2014. “And I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn’t have a war right now if you had Russia in.” But he added that probably “too much water’s gone over the dam” for Russia to re-enter the bloc. 

The president also poured cold water on the idea that he would agree to the sweeping new sanctions on Russia being proposed in the Senate. “Don’t forget, you know, sanctions cost us a lot of money,” he told reporters Monday. “When I sanction a country that costs the U.S. a lot of money, a tremendous amount of money.” On Tuesday, Reuters reported that the administration had dismantled an inter-agency group focused on creating strategies to pressure Russia, another possible sign that the White House is uninterested in punitive measures to force Moscow to the negotiating table.

However, in Carney’s closing press conference, the prime minister claimed that Trump had agreed to a series of statements on Ukraine with other leaders over dinner the previous night, which were released as part of the “Chair’s Summary” he issued on Tuesday night. 

“G7 Leaders expressed support for President Trump’s efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” it reads. “They recognized that Ukraine has committed to an unconditional ceasefire, and they agreed that Russia must do the same. G7 Leaders are resolute in exploring all options to maximize pressure on Russia, including financial sanctions.” If Trump did in fact agree with the language, he still is at least in theory open to sanctioning Russia further.

Trump was slightly more conciliatory on the subject of tariffs, a major area of contention between the U.S. and Canada. “Our primary focus will be trade, and trade with Canada. And I’m sure we can work something out,” he said. But Trump conceded that differences between the two sides remained. “I think we have different concepts. I have a tariff concept,” claimed the president. “Mark has a different concept, which is something that some people like,” he said, presumably referring to Carney’s belief in free trade. 

Carney’s office later released a statement saying that both countries had agreed to “pursue negotiations towards a deal within the next 30 days.” Trump also announced Monday that he and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had finalized a trade pact, the framework of which had been agreed upon in May. Besides that, there appears to have been little progress on easing tariffs, with Trump saying that Japan remained “tough” in negotiations and that the EU wasn’t offering a “fair deal yet.”

It seemed like the attendees were teed up for a longer series of debates on Russia and international trade. But on Monday night, the White House announced that Trump would be leaving before the end of the summit, citing the ongoing escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel in the Middle East. “Much was accomplished, but because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote on X.

“The oxygen was sucked out of the room by Iran-Israel, and then [by] the fact that he left saying, ‘I’ve got to hurry back because of this war,’” Jim Townsend, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and the former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO, told TMD. Townsend also noted that Carney’s stated priorities for the event—trade negotiations and Russia sanctions—were “swamped” by the Middle East conflict. 

Ultimately, the only joint statement to come out of the meeting was one that addressed the war between Iran and Israel. G7 summits typically conclude with a joint communique signed by all member countries, addressing the issues discussed between the heads of state. However, in 2018, Trump refused to sign the statement, citing differences of opinion over tariffs.

This time, a consensus statement, albeit a limited one, did emerge from the meeting. On Monday night, a press release from all seven countries showcased guarded support for the continuation of Israeli strikes on Iran. “Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror. We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” the statement said. “We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.”

The harsh language toward the Islamic Republic, along with the lack of a call for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, was likely an acknowledgement of Washington’s strong support for Israel. “I think it was a concession to Trump,” said Townsend. 

But the statement came after one G7 leader had already gotten himself in hot water with Trump. French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Tuesday said he opposed any attempt at regime change in Iran, told reporters that Trump was headed back to the U.S. in order to negotiate a truce. “They will find a ceasefire, and since they can pressure Israel, things may change,” he said.

Trump denied Macron’s claim, writing on Truth Social that the French president had “no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”

The American president claims that he’s hunting much bigger game. “We’re looking for better than a ceasefire,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One late Tuesday night, saying that his goal was a “real end” to the conflict. “A complete give-up, that’s possible,” he added.

Trump has also implied that the U.S. is hard at work behind the scenes as Israel continues to strike Iranian targets. “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he wrote on social media Tuesday. Just hours later, he ratcheted up the rhetoric further, calling for Tehran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

In Trump’s absence, the G7 wrapped up Tuesday afternoon. Canada and the U.K. both announced a new set of sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil smugglers, following their meeting with the late-arriving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “The support will be unwavering until we get a just peace,” said Carney, announcing the sanctions and a new tranche of military aid to Ukraine. 

But no matter how much the other members express their agreement on a given issue, the eventual verdict reached by the U.S. will be the most critical. “The U.S. is not going to be a sideline actor with the world’s economy,” Daniel Fried, the former U.S. ambassador to Poland and Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council, told TMD. “It is possible for six of the seven members to have a lot of common ground and recognize it, but the U.S. is never sidelined.”

In his closing press conference, Carney stressed that at this year’s G7, global leaders were confronted with the task of retrofitting established international institutions to a more insecure global environment. “Nostalgia isn’t a strategy,” he said, noting that his country was currently negotiating a new economic and security relationship with the U.S. It may have been the 51st G7, but it seems that leaders understood that it was also one of the first meetings of a new world.

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