On April 28th, Canadians voted for a Liberal minority government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney. There are 343 seats in the nation’s House of Commons, each based on one geographically distinct riding secured through simple plurality. The map below shows how each federal electoral district voted:
Since most Canadians live within a few hours’ drive of the United States, rather than in the sprawling Arctic and subarctic North, a nationwide electoral map like this one can be deceptive. The important thing to keep in mind is that over one hundred Members of Parliament (MPs) in the House of Commons represent geographically tiny urban ridings highlighted in the smaller metro-area maps shown just above. Meanwhile, huge ridings like the one for the Northwest Territories—though more than twice the size of France— represent fewer people than a single seat in downtown Toronto and carry no great weight politically.
With that, let’s break down the votes, region by region, moving from West to East.
British Columbia: this is one of the nation’s fastest growing provinces, with a large Asian-Canadian population centered on the metropolitan area of Vancouver. The Liberals polled very well in that city. They did less well in the mountainous interior of BC, where Conservatives dominated. Liberal seats won: 20 out of 43.
The Prairie Provinces: This is the modern Tory stronghold, the most conservative part of the country, heavily dependent on the extraction of natural resources. In Alberta, even the cities voted largely Conservative, as did the province of Saskatchewan. In Manitoba, the Liberals carved out a foothold in Winnipeg and in the northern half of the province. Liberal seats won: nine out of 65.
The Far North: The Northwest Territories, Yukon, and Nunavut are some of the most thinly populated and forbidding regions on the planet. They face massive logistical challenges, depend heavily on federal support, and have a high proportion of indigenous peoples. Liberal seats won: two out of three.
Ontario: This most populous province is the historic, geographic, and industrial heart of English-speaking Canada. Over the past 50 years, it has been nearly impossible to form a national government without winning here. In the federal election last week, the Liberals dominated Ottawa and downtown Toronto. The Tories, for their part, did very well in central and southern Ontario. They also picked up half a dozen seats in one part of suburban Toronto. But despite Tory gains, the Liberals continued to dominate the Toronto metro area. Liberal seats won: 69 out of 122.
Quebec: the French-speaking share of Canada’s population has diminished over the years to around 22 percent. Nevertheless, La Belle Province carries a lot of clout. The Tories regularly win a dozen or so prosperous seats clustered around Quebec City; they did so again last month. The Liberals cleaned up in multilingual Montreal. But the big story was the relative decline of the Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party that usually dominates the province’s rural and small-town districts. A good percentage of these voters defected to Marc Carney and the Liberals, convinced that Trump’s threats of annexation were the most immediate challenge. Liberal seats won: 44 out of 78.
Atlantic Canada: This friendliest of Canadian regions—also the most Celtic—has traditionally been determined to secure a good share of federal pork, patronage, and transfer payments. Tories can be competitive here so long as they show a decent respect for these indecent traditions. Over the last few months, however, the entire region pivoted hard toward the Liberals. In Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick, Carney was viewed as the most reliable captain in an economic storm. Liberal seats won: 25 out of 32.
A tally of these results shows that the Liberals won 169 seats altogether. That’s just a few seats shy of a majority in the House of Commons. They will require support from one of Canada’s third parties to govern.
The Conservatives won 144 seats, making them His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.
The Bloc Quebecois won 22 seats, a significant drop from the last federal election.
The New Democratic Party—a socialist party that typically wins at least 20 or 30 ridings—collapsed to a mere seven seats.
The Greens won a single seat in Vancouver Island, their strongest locale.
In the next installment of this series, I survey the leading theories as to why the Liberals were able to come back from their historic low point of only a few months ago. Spoiler alert: It wasn’t simply Donald Trump.
The post How Canada’s Liberals Won: The Regional Breakdown appeared first on American Enterprise Institute – AEI.
