Submitted by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner of WirePoints
A review of U.S. Census population data since 2020, including fresh 2024 data released this week, reveals a perfect demographic storm that’s likely to worsen Illinois’ downward spiral.
Illinois has experienced from 2020 to 2024 the nation’s worst collapse in youth aged 18 and under; the 6th-worst drop in working age residents; and a jump in the elderly’s share of population. All three in combination foreshadow a vicious cycle of higher taxes and taxpayer flight, leading to even higher taxes and more population decline.
The demographic challenges above are piling up on top of a slew of other damaging population data released recently.
Illinois’ population loss of nearly 110,000 since 2020 is the nation’s 3rd worst. Only a spike in illegal immigration the last two years has been able to temporarily slow the state’s population decline. And the state has been chasing out its wealthy residents in exchange for incomers who make far less.
The overall population results of the last four years show why Illinois needs an absolute flip of its politics and policy.
Here’s what the latest demographic data shows for Illinois:
Nation’s worst drop in number of residents age 18 and under. Illinois had 184,000 fewer residents aged 18 and under in 2024 vs 2020. That’s a 6% drop, the biggest percentage loss in the country.
To be sure, much of Illinois’ decline can be attributed to the national trend of declining births. In all, just 11 states increased their youth population over the same period. But having the worst decline shows Illinois is in special trouble. Every one of Illinois’ neighbors had a far smaller decline than we did.
Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.
Nation’s 6th-worst drop in working-age residents. Illinois needs a massive growth in its tax base to change its current trajectory from ever-higher taxes to actual tax relief. Not to mention it needs more productive workers to spread out the cost of its nation’s-highest pension debt.
Unfortunately, over the last four years Illinois lost 146,000 18-64 working age residents. That’s a decline of 2%, the 6th-worst change in the country.
Texas and Florida show the power of attracting workers from other states to drive their economies. In just four years Florida added 950,000 working-age residents and Texas, 1.3 million.
Seniors growing as a share of population. Compounding the demographic problems mentioned above is a significant 225,000 increase in Illinois’ number of senior citizens. With the young and working-age brackets in decline, seniors now make up 18% of the population, up from 16% four years before. As a result, the tax base will be under even bigger pressure.
Count on the bad news to keep coming. There’s zero indication that the state’s current leadership plans to reverse course on the policies that have gotten Illinois into this mess.
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