Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The US and Ukraine’s arguably coordinated fearmongering campaign about the regional security consequences of Cubans allegedly fighting for Russia hints that the island will soon come under more pressure.
Reuters exclusively reported in early October that the State Department sent an unclassified cable to dozens of US missions directing diplomats to tell countries that Cuba sent up to 5,000 fighters to support Russia against Ukraine.
Ukrainian intelligence then promoted these claims in the New York Post, arguably through coordination with the State Department, which coincided with the Russian Upper House ratifying a new military cooperation pact with Cuba that has itself been the subject of speculation too.
Some suspect that it’s meant to formalize Russia’s reported military recruitment pipeline in Cuba that incensed some officials in Havana two years ago as analyzed here at the time, which might now include formal troops along the lines of an earlier pact with North Korea, while others see grander plans. Alexander Stepanov, military expert at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told TASS that Russia might send Iskanders and even Oreshniks to Cuba under this pact.
According to him, this “would create an effective deterrent capable of reaching strategically important targets on US territory, thereby maintaining the balance of power and parity in offensive capabilities”, particularly in the context of possible US plans to send long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. This line of speculation isn’t new since Deputy Chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev proposed in January 2024 that Russia base nukes there and elsewhere in the region.
That would be sensible in principle but unlikely in practice since Cuba probably doesn’t want to risk provoking Trump into considering an Iranian-like maximum pressure campaign against it, especially not after he just ordered a regional military buildup on the pretext of stopping drug trafficking. Continued high-profile speculation about the scenario of Russian missiles once again secretly being sent to Cuba, whether from publicly financed TASS or a Duma official, could still be exploited to this end though.
Much more likely, however, is that the State Department’s reported cable about Cuban fighters supporting Russia against Ukraine is taken advantage of to gradually justify more pressure upon the island. About that, this claim might be true (regardless of whether it concerns volunteers and/or actual troops) just like earlier ones about North Korean support were later confirmed by Russia, but it would be Cuba’s legal right to allow its citizens to cooperate with Russia like this and/or send direct support.
Even if that’s all that there is their newly ratified pact, Ukraine’s fearmongering about it to the New York Post – which Trump once called his “favorite newspaper” – could suffice for returning Cuba to the US’ crosshairs. According to them, “The combat experience Cuban nationals gain in Ukraine is a dangerous and transferable commodity. This experience could be used to train proxies and destabilize other regions, particularly in Latin America, threatening the security of US allies and partners.”
It’s unimportant that the aforementioned is speculation since all that matters is that Trump somehow or another comes to believe (whether on his own or per the urging of close advisors) that this is a credible scenario and correspondingly authorizes a more muscular policy against Cuba.
This could even be driven by cynical electoral interests ahead of next fall’s midterms but disguised as being in the US’ national security interests.
Observers should therefore keep a close eye on US-Cuban ties going forward.
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