A new poll indicates that Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (RN), would secure a victory in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election in every matchup tested. Although elections are still 18 months away, it shows a considerable shift in French public support to right-wing, conservative positions.
The new Odoxa-Mascaret poll released Tuesday, conducted for French news outlet Public Sénat and other regional press outlets, suggests a clear path for Bardella should Marine Le Pen’s potential ineligibility be confirmed.
As Remix News reported, Le Pen was convicted for charges dating back years ago, in a move that was widely contested and seen as a highly political attempt to keep her from running for president in 2027.
BREAKING:
Today marks the day democracy died in France.
A judge ruled Marine Le Pen is ineligible to run for president in 2027.
She is the frontrunner.
8 MEPs from her party are also barred from participating in elections.
Judges are now deciding elections across the EU. pic.twitter.com/HHuMv8hsja
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) March 31, 2025
According to the new poll, even if Le Pen fails in her appeal attempts, Bardella, seen as her successor, would comfortably lead the first round in both main scenarios examined by the pollsters.
In a polling scenario with Édouard Philippe (Centrist candidate), Bardella would take 35 percent of the first-round vote, with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe advancing to the runoff with 17 percent. In the second round, Bardella would defeat Philippe with 53 percent to 47 percent of the vote. This marks a reversal from the same Odoxa poll conducted in April, where Philippe led the RN leader 54 percent to 46 percent.
FrenchNational Rally party president Jordan Bardella answers reporters following a meeting, after France’s prime minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned plunging the country into a deep political crisis. Monday, Oct. 6, 2025 in Paris. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
In a matchup against Gabriel Attal, Bardella’s first-round support increases slightly to 36 percent. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who polls at 11 percent, would be overtaken by both Raphaël Glucksmann (14.5 percent)and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12 percent).
The institute also tested other potential second-round matchups, taking into account the “margins of statistical error” from the first round. Bardella would defeat Raphaël Glucksmann with 58 percent to 42 percent of the vote.
Against the secretary general of Renaissance, Gabriel Attal, Bardella would win with “56 percent against 44 percent.”
Finally, against far-left La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Bardella would secure a decisive victory with “74 percent of the vote against 26 percent.”
Mélenchon, in particular, is known for actively supporting the Great Replacement.
🇫🇷🚨 French far left leader once again says the Great Replacement is real and good
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: “Yes, Mr. Zemmour, there is a Great Replacement. Yes, Mr. Bayrou, there is a Great Replacement.”
However, Mélenchon says it is good because it allows people to “mix.” pic.twitter.com/eEgIKyLrZG
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 11, 2025
Bardella himself has been attracting huge crowds across the country, with polling showing that more than half of France is willing to have him lead the country. During a recent stop in Brittany, he published a video of Bretons waiting for a chance to meet him, writing: “Brittany was a difficult land for the National Rally. But the Bretons have become aware of the accuracy of our diagnosis on agricultural abandonment, on security laxity, or even on mass immigration: we are here, now, in a land of strong progress for our ideas.”
La Bretagne était une terre difficile pour le Rassemblement National.
Mais les Bretons ont pris conscience de la justesse de notre diagnostic sur l’abandon agricole, sur le laxisme sécuritaire ou encore sur l’immigration de masse : nous sommes ici, désormais, dans une terre de… pic.twitter.com/ikKV2C2Jfr
— Jordan Bardella (@J_Bardella) November 23, 2025
The survey did not include Marine Le Pen, whose candidacy is linked to her legal situation. Bardella, however, is favored by both the French public and National Rally (RN) supporters, amounting to a seven-point lead” over Le Pen, according to Odoxa.
Approval ratings saw a minor boost for the current administration: President Emmanuel Macron gained “one point in a month, reaching 21% approval, allowing him to climb out of his historic low in this poll.” Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu gained “6 points, reaching 36% approval.”
The survey was conducted Nov. 19 and 20 among a representative sample of 1,300 French people age 18 and older, including 1,206 registered voters (quota sampling method). The margin of error for the voting scenarios is between 1.5 and 3.5 points. For popularity ratings, the survey was conducted among a representative sample of 1,000 French people age 18 and older (quota sampling method), with a margin of error between 2.5 and 3 points.
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