NEW YORK, NY – Between June 10th and June 16th, 2025, the Manhattan Institute conducted a survey of 1,000 likely voters in New York City’s upcoming mayoral election, including an oversample of 644 Democratic primary voters to provide granular insights into primary dynamics. Polling questions relay candidate favorability, voter preferences, and the major issues shaping the election.
The results show former Governor Andrew Cuomo defeating Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani 56% to 44% in the final round of ranked-choice voting. The race remains fluid but with one week to go, and despite the media narrative of a Mamdani surge, Cuomo remains the frontrunner. That said, youth turnout is the major wildcard. If young voters turn out at significantly higher rates than in past primaries, the race could tighten. For example, if 18–34-year-olds make up 24% of the electorate—double their share in 2017 or 2021—the race becomes a statistical tie. If their share rises to 30%, Mamdani would likely edge out a narrow win over Cuomo.
Key findings include:
- New Yorkers remain pessimistic about the city’s direction. Some 62% say the city is on the wrong track, with only 20% believing it’s headed in the right direction. That mood is broadly shared across party lines: 68% of Republicans, 62% of independents, and 61% of Democrats agree the city is on the wrong track.
- The two most important issues to New York City voters are crime and public safety (26%) and housing costs (25%). This is followed by jobs, taxes and the economy (18%). No other issue cracks 10%, with migrants and immigration a top concern for only 7% and public transportation a top priority for 3%.
- A majority (54%) of New York City voters say they want to see more police officers across New York. Only 17% say they want to see fewer, while 21% say they want to keep the current number as it is.
- Voters see a dual remedy for affordability: 46% say the city should both streamline approvals for new homes and expand subsidies for renters and buyers. Among those who picked just one approach, 21% favor deregulation, while 15% prefer subsidies.
Cuomo leads the Democratic primary and commands the broadest general election coalition—not because voters are nostalgic, but because they’re uneasy. The picture that emerges is not of a city in revolt, but of one seeking a course correction.
Click here to read all poll findings.
Are you interested in supporting the Manhattan Institute’s public-interest research and journalism? As a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, donations in support of MI and its scholars’ work are fully tax-deductible as provided by law (EIN #13-2912529).
