Stock Futures Fade Overnight Gains After Activist Judges Block Trump Tariffs, NVDA Earnings Impress

US equity futures are higher, but well off session highs and rapidly losing altitude, after stronger NVDA earnings and a surprise legal block (for now) of Trump’s YTD tariffs, triggering a global risk-on rally. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are  up 0.8% at 5,952, erasing half of the overnight post NVDA/tariff gains which briefly saw spoos rise above 6,000. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.4% boosted by NVDA which is +6% after delivering a solid sales forecast, and Jensen Huang saying the AI computing market is still poised for “exponential growth.” Mag7/Semis/Cyclicals are outperforming. Bond yields are higher pushing the 10Y yield to 4.52% but so far equities are mostly unbothered. USD is flat, also erasing all overnight gains, while commodities are higher led by energy. Today’s macro data focus is on the first revision to Q1 GDP, jobless claims, and pending home sales. The tariff rule, for now, has pushed the US back to global outperformance with EU the lagging.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher: Nvidia (NVDA) surges 5% after CEO Jensen Huang soothed investor fears about a China slowdown by delivering a solid sales forecast, saying that the AI computing market is still poised for “exponential growth.” Elsewhere Apple +2%, Amazon +2.5%, Tesla +2.3%, Alphabet +1.2%, Meta +1.4%, Microsoft +0.7%. Semiconductor stocks also rally after Nvidia delivered a solid sales forecast, soothing investor fears about a China slowdown. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Agilent (A) rises 5% after the lab-technology company boosted its revenue forecast.
• Burlington Stores (BURL) gains 9% after the clothing retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average estimate.
• C3.ai (AI) jumps 13% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and announced the renewal of its partnership with Baker Hughes.
• Elf Beauty (ELF) rises 9% after the cosmetic company agreed to acquire Hailey Bieber’s beauty brand, Rhode, for $1 billion.
• HP Inc. (HPQ) sinks 9% after giving a profit outlook for the current quarter that fell short of expectations and cutting its annual forecast due to a weaker economy and US tariffs on goods from China.
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) slumps 16% after the drug developer said a patient in a late-stage trial for a heart disease drug recently experienced a severe side effect, which appears to be resolving.
• JD.com (JD) ADRs gain 4% after the company said it’s expanding a partnership with Xiaohongshu for users to access its shopping site via ads placed on the social media platform.
• Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) climbs 4% after posting better-than-expected comparable sales, signaling that the retailer’s turnaround plan may be beginning to take hold.
• SentinelOne (S) plunges 13% after the maker of security software cut its revenue guidance for the year.
• Synopsys (SNPS) rises 4% after the software company reported adjusted second-quarter earnings that beat expectations.
• Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) climbs 15% after the healthcare-software company boosted its year profit and revenue forecast as 1Q results topped estimates.

The ruling by the US trade court to block most of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs heralded the latest twist for markets that have swung wildly since Trump announced his so-called reciprocal levies at the start of April. In the ruling, a panel of three judges at the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan sided with Democratic-led states and small businesses that accused Trump of wrongfully invoking an emergency law to justify the bulk of his levies. The order applies to Trump’s global flat tariff, elevated rates on China and others, and his fentanyl-related tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. Other tariffs imposed under different powers, such as the levies on steel, aluminum and automobiles are unaffected.

“This is a reminder of what the end state is probably going to be — that we end up with a 10 percentage point tariff which, in a very long-term context, is an average number,” said Luke Hickmore, investment director at Aberdeen Group Plc. “Anything under the mid-teens the market will take positively.”

However, as we first reported overnight, many analysts cautioned that Thursday’s optimism could be short-lived, saying that Trump’s administration would find alternative ways to implement its policies. The final decision in the tariff case may also ultimately rest with higher courts, including the US Supreme Court.

“We are unlikely to see the end of the tariff chapter,” Benedicte Lowe, an equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas SA, told Bloomberg TV. “Trump is likely to fight for his tariff negotiations. It’s kind of too early to tell.”

Before the trade decision markets were already in a buoyant mood as Nvidia’s solid sales forecast reignited enthusiasm for artificial-intelligence products, despite a drag from China. Tech stocks led gains in premarket trading, with Marvell Technology, Super Micro Computer and ARM Holdings rising more than 3%.

“The AI story is still very much at the frontier of all global productivity for the next decade or two if not longer, so you still want to get exposure when you can,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV.

“The uncertainty level, already high, has been notched up another step,” said Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale SA. “More investing and spending decisions will be delayed and foreign holders of US assets will be slightly more uncomfortable than they were.”

European stocks are also higher, pushing the Stoxx 600 up 0.3% and tracking gains in their Asian counterparts. Cyclical sectors such as consumer products, miners and autos outperform, while defensive stocks including utilities and real estate are the biggest laggards. Among individual stocks, ASML rises after Nvidia’s strong sales forecast, while Auto Trader falls on analyst warnings about the outlook for automotive marketplace. Here are the most notable movers:

• ASML and other European chip stocks advance on Thursday after Nvidia gave a robust forecast despite a loss of sales in China due to chip restrictions, a sign of continued strong demand for AI-related applications.
• BP shares gain as much as 0.9% following reports that the oil giant’s Castrol lubricant business is attracting interest from energy companies and buyout firms.
• De’ Longhi shares rise as much as 9.1% in Milan, the most since May 13, after Barclays analyst Gaurav Jain raised his recommendation and target price on the stock.
• Atalaya Mining gains as much as 7.6%, climbing to the highest since July 2024, after reporting record quarterly Ebitda and the highest copper production since the second quarter of 2021.
• Grenergy Renovables climbs as much as 10%, hitting a record and extending this year’s gains to more than 90%, after RBC makes huge upgrades to both its price target and estimates.
• European stocks rise on optimism about a brighter trade outlook after a US court deemed the bulk of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs illegal.
• CD Projekt gains as much as 5.1% after the Polish game videogame maker reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings.
• SES rises as much as 2.5% as its $3.1 billion acquisition of Intelsat SA was cleared by the UK’s competition regulator, in a move that will create a satellite giant to better compete with Elon Musk’s Starlink.
• Auto Trader shares plummet as much as 12% in London after analysts warned the online automotive marketplace’s outlook is likely to lead to consensus cuts, causing the stock’s year-to-date gains to unravel.
• Phoenix Group falls as much as 3.5% as Bank of America downgrades the UK life insurance and pension funds firm to neutral from buy following a rally this year.
• Hollywood Bowl shares fall as much as 11%, the most since December, after the bowling center operator said warm spring weather had hurt its business, offsetting a broadly solid result.
• DBV Technologies shares fall as much as 3.8% as Goldman Sachs reinstates coverage with a sell rating.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities climbed the most in two weeks, as a US court order against President Donald Trump’s tariffs lifted sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, set for highest close since Sept. 27. Toyota, Sony and Meituan were among the biggest boosts to the regional benchmark. Semiconductor shares gained after Nvidia gave a bullish outlook. Most of Asia’s markets were in the green as worries over US tariffs eased slightly after a trade court deemed the bulk of Trump’s new levies illegal. Gauges in South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong rose more than 1%. Trump’s administration has filed a notice to appeal the ruling.

Asian stocks look set to end May with a second-straight monthly gain as a weaker dollar and Trump’s policies bolstered inflows into the region. Still, uncertainty remains over the outcome of Trump’s appeal and progress on individual countries’ trade deals with the US.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed having surrendered most it’s early rally. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% each.  The Dollar initially rallied across the board on the headlines but managed to retrace these gains by the time NY sat down while futures climbed higher. Such price action highlights that the USD can underperform as non-US investors increase their hedge ratios rather than meaningful changes in risk asset allocations. FX vols have remained stable as front-end gamma climbed higher, which our traders note (Costello) is justified by spot moves and a premium for further on/off headlines/appeals over the next month or so. The Euro complex is trading mostly flat, underperforming overnight relative to their typical beta to risk. CNH and CAD are marginally gaining on the Dollar and outperformed overnight which reflects the more direct relief for their domestic economies implied by a potential suspension of the current US tariffs.

In rates, treasuries are heading lower, pushing US 30-year yields up 3 bps to 5.01%, after a court ruling blocked some of Trump’s import tariffs, resulting in an annual funding shortfall of about $250BN which will have to be plugged with more debt. Downside pressure on Treasuries also seen after positive sentiment from Nvidia Corp. posting another set of strong results. US yields are cheaper by 3bp to 4.5bp across the curve with losses led by intermediates, cheapening belly of the curve vs. front and long-end. US 10-year yields trade around 4.515% with bunds and gilts both outperforming by around 2bp in the sector. US session focus includes $44 billion 7-year note sale, adding duration risk for the session, along with a bunch of Federal Reserve speakers and weekly jobless claims.

In commodities, oil is climbing, with WTI rising 1.2% to $62.60 a barrel, while Bitcoin is up 1% and above $108,000. Spot gold is down $4 to around $3,280/oz.

On today’s calendar US economic data includes 1Q second GDP estimate, initial jobless claims (8:30am) and April pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (8:30am), Goolsbee (10:40am), Kugler (2pm), Daly (4pm) and Logan (8:25pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1.0%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.8%
• 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.52%
• VIX -0.8 points at 18.53
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1220.68
• euro -0.1% at $1.1278
• WTI crude +1.3% at $62.63/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US futures got a boost after most of Donald Trump’s tariffs were deemed illegal by the US trade court, blocking them for now. The panel of three judges — who ruled unanimously — gave the administration 10 days to “effectuate” its order; the White House is appealing. BBG
• House Republicans’ tax package is now expected to cost nearly $4 trillion, thanks in part to a last-minute deal to further increase a cap on state and local tax deductions. Politico
• Musk said his scheduled time as a special government employee is coming to an end, while a White House official said Elon Musk leaving the administration is accurate and his off-boarding would begin on Wednesday night.
• White House plans to send a small package of DOGE spending cuts to Congress next week: Politico.
• The US will start “aggressively” revoking visas for Chinese students with connections to the CCP or studying in critical fields, Marco Rubio said. Fox reported that the State Department will investigate all visa holders associated with Harvard. BBG
• The Trump admin has suspended some sales to China of critical US technologies, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors, and certain chemicals and machinery. The move is a response to China’s recent restrictions on exports of critical minerals to the US. NYT
• Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is headed to Washington for a fourth round of talks despite the US trade court ruling. He hopes to meet Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent before returning Sunday. BBG
• South Korea’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25bp (as expected) and slashed its 2025 growth outlook, signaling more easing to come. WSJ
• The UK plans to mandate pension funds to invest in private markets and the domestic economy. Industry leaders have argued it conflicts with their fiduciary duties. BBG
• Nvidia (+5.8%) shares jumped premarket after it delivered an upbeat sales forecast. CEO Jensen Huang renewed his appeal to the Trump administration to allow it to produce chips for China again. BBG
• Elon Musk said his “scheduled time” as a formal adviser to Trump is coming to a close. As for DOGE, Trump and Musk have previously declined to detail a succession plan for the effort, which the president originally gave a sunset date of July 4, 2026. BBG
• NY Fed said it will start morning standing repo facility operations on June 26th with offerings to take place between 08:15-08:30ET and will maintain afternoon standing repo facility offerings.
• Bank of America Total Card Spending (w/e May 24th) +0.2% (April average +1%); initial read suggestive of softer Memorial Day spending weekend likely due to colder weather.

Trade/Tariffs

• Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs in a ruling related to a case brought on behalf of five small businesses that import goods from other countries. It was also reported that US President Trump’s administration filed an appeal following the ruling by the Court of International Trade and the White House stated it is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency.
• Goldman Sachs noted that the ruling on Liberation Day tariffs gives the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection but does not affect sectoral tariffs and the admin can impose across-the-board tariff and country-specific tariffs under other legal authorities.
• US President Trump ordered US chip designers to stop selling to China, according to FT. Trump administration told US companies that offer software used to design semiconductors to stop selling their services to Chinese groups, in the latest attempt to make it harder for China to develop advanced chips. Several people familiar with the move said the Commerce Department told Electronic Design Automation groups, which include Cadence, Synopsys and Siemens EDA, to stop supplying their technology to China and in some cases, the Commerce Department has suspended existing export licenses or imposed additional license requirements while the review is pending.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the US will begin revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields and it will also revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong.
• US halts exporting aircraft engine technology and chip software to China, according to NYT.
• UK is seeking to accelerate the implementation of trade deals with the US when Business Secretary Reynolds meets with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick next week, according to FT.
• Japanese PM Ishiba said to be arranging call with US President Trump on Thursday evening.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher with sentiment underpinned following NVIDIA’s earnings and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs and deemed that the sweeping tariffs under the emergency powers law were unlawful. However, the Trump administration has since filed an appeal and has other tools it could apply to maintain such tariffs. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in energy, telecoms and tech although gains were capped with miners, real estate and defensives at the other end of the spectrum. Nikkei 225 outperformed and climbed back above the 38,000 level following the recent currency weakness and blow to Trump’s tariff agenda. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood although US-China frictions lingered after the Trump administration ordered US chip designers to stop selling to China and US Secretary of State Rubio announced to ‘aggressively’ revoke visas of Chinese students.

Top Asian News

• BoK cut the 7-day Repo Rate by 25bps to 2.50%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK said it will maintain its rate cut stance to mitigate downside risks to economic growth and will adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts, while it is to closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy environments. The central bank also stated that South Korean exports are seen continuing to slow down and that a high degree of uncertainty in the trade environment is a risk to growth. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said they see bigger room for further cuts given the downside risks to growth and noted that four board members saw room for further cuts for the next three months.
• Japan’s Finance Minister Kato says will monitor financial markets moves including super-long bond trade. See large movement in super-long bond yield at the moment. Will conduct through communications with market players. Able to deepen discussions with US Treasury Secretary Bessent about a basic understanding of FX policy. Did not discuss about FX levels at all with the previous discussion with Bessent.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened with a strong positive bias with sentiment boosted following well received NVIDIA results and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. Sentiment has waned in recent trade, but with indices still broadly in the green. European sectors hold a positive bias, with the more cyclicals sectors topping the pile. Tech takes the top spot, with sentiment in the sector boosted after strong NVIDIA results afterhours; ASML +2.7%.

Top European News

• Slovakian court says ECB’s Kazmir (Hawkish) has been found guilty of bribery, via Bloomberg; given a 200k fine, according to Reuters

FX

• The dollar is extending recent gains, buoyed by Wednesday’s legal ruling that curtailed the scope of President Trump’s tariff powers, whilst the FOMC minutes did little to shift the dial. Broader market sentiment is also supported by NVIDIA earnings. DXY touched a high of 100.48 overnight before waning and returning back to 100 at the time of writing (vs low 99.98).
• EUR/USD is softer following the US court ruling that limits Trump’s tariff powers – a development that marginally improves US growth prospects and supports the dollar by narrowing its risk premium. EUR/USD currently resides in a 1.1209-1.1297 range at the time of writing, with the 50 DMA seen at 1.1183.
• JPY weakens amid an unwind in risk premium following the aforementioned US court ruling on US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. Japan’s Finance Minister Kato overnight said they will monitor financial market moves including super-long bond trade. On FX, Kato said they are able to deepen discussions with US Treasury Secretary Bessent about a basic understanding of FX policy, and did not discuss FX. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 50 DMA (145.35) in a 144.73-146.28 intraday range.
• GBP is more resilient to the dollar strength, potentially amid reports that the UK is seeking to accelerate the implementation of trade deals with the US when Business Secretary Reynolds meets with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick next week, according to FT. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3409-1.3474 range as attention now turns to BoE’s Breeden and Bailey.
• Antipodeans are diverging with the AUD benefitting despite a miss in Capex data, but the currency is boosted by the aforementioned trade developments. The Kiwi is giving back some of the post-RBNZ upside.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1907 vs exp. 7.2023 (Prev. 7.1894).

Fixed Income

• USTs are softer with fixed losing out due to its usual haven properties amid the constructive risk tone. In brief, the tone is buoyed by well-received NVIDIA earnings and the US CIT ruling that Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are unlawful. Across the morning, this has sent USTs to a 109-26+ base, taking out Wednesday’s trough but stalling just shy of the WTD base at 109-24+. The docket features weekly claims, Q1 PCE/GDP (2nd), 7yr supply and Fed speak. Fed speak includes Barkin and Daly, no text expected, in addition to Goolsbee and Kugler where a text is expected.
• German paper also hold a bearish bias, which has pushed Bunds to a 130.39 base, which as is the case for USTs, has stopped just before the 130.15 WTD low. Specifics for the bloc are a little light so far, we await the first of a regular series of calls between EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer later on today. A call which will perhaps draw even greater interest after the referenced CIT ruling. As the morning progresses the risk tone has faded a touch from best, more so in Europe than in US futures, and as such EGBs have lifted off worst by around 20 ticks for Bunds.
• Gilts are falling the risk tone and are also in the red. Down to a 90.70 base but has since bounced off worst, the move is slightly more pronounced than the discussed one in EGBs, owing to the UK tone pulling back the hardest and particularly an easing in energy benchmarks from highs, of particular note for the FTSE 100 given its exposure to the sector.
• HSBC has cut exposure to US Treasurys and extended its underweight in developed market sovereigns, warning yields above 4.7% could trigger broad risk-off moves, WSJ reports.
• UK sells GBP 3.2bln 0.125% 2031 I/L, via tender: b/c 2.57x, real yield 0.827%.
• Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.0-6.5bln 2.95% 2030, 3.60% 2035 BTP & EUR 3.5bln vs exp. EUR 3.0-3.5bln 2034 CCTeu.

Commodities

• Crude has been boosted amid the upbeat sentiment driven by the US Court Ruling on Trump’s tariffs and an NVIDIA earnings beat – crude benefits with the contracts higher by USD 0.75/bbl. Energy-specific updates have been light aside from Kazakhstan reiterating that it cannot cut oil production right now and hopes to increase output to above its current plan later this year. Brent sits in a USD 64.55-65.50/bbl parameter.
• Spot gold is subdued amid haven outflows emanating from the aforementioned tariff updates, which unwinds some risk premium across havens. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,245.56-3,295.24/oz range at the time of writing, with the 50 DMA seen at USD 3,222.38/oz.
• Copper is benefitting from the risk environment. Specifically, it trades within a USD 9,561.3-9,645.4/t range and is currently approaching session highs.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.2mln (exp. +0.1mln), Distillate +1.3mln (exp. +0.5mln), Gasoline -0.5mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
• Iraqi Oil Minister urged commitment to agreements reached in the OPEC+ meeting and affirmed that unity of stance is crucial for the stability of oil markets, according to a statement.
• Libya’s eastern-based government may announce a force majeure on oil fields and ports citing repeated assaults on the National Oil Corporation.
• Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister says he thinks oil price above USD 70-75/bbl is suitable for all countries; Kazakhstan is not the reason why oil price is declining, due to its relatively small output.

Geopolitics

• Russia’s Kremlin says there are currently no plans for Russian President Putin to speak to US President Trump; have had no answer from Kyiv on June 2nd talks. Main thing right now is to continue the direct Russia-Ukraine talks Its not constructive to claim Russia is delaying the process.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 1Q S GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
• 8:30 am: 1Q S Personal Consumption, est. 1.7%, prior 1.8%
• 8:30 am: 1Q S GDP Price Index, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
• 8:30 am: 1Q S Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
• 8:30 am: May 24 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230k, prior 227k
• 8:30 am: May 17 Continuing Claims, est. 1893k, prior 1903k
• 10:00 am: Apr Pending Home Sales MoM, est. -1%, prior 6.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, there’s been another major development in US tariff policy overnight, as the US Court of International Trade has ruled that the Trump administration did not have the authority to impose most of the tariffs that have been announced. We should say at the outset that this is hardly the end of this story, as the administration are appealing this decision. But already, markets have seen a substantial rally in response, with futures on the S&P 500 up +1.60% overnight, whilst the US dollar index is up +0.37% as well. That’s echoed around the world too, with all the major equity indices advancing in Asia, whilst futures on the German DAX are up +0.96%.

In terms of the court ruling, they said that the administration had exceeded their legal authority, and that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) “does not authorize the President to impose unbounded tariffs.” So this is a huge development, and the court gave the administration 10 days in order to “effectuate” the judgement. Bear in mind that this ruling covers the 10% baseline tariffs, the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products, the extra 20% on China, as well as all the reciprocal tariffs that have been paused until July 9. However, there are a few exceptions not covered by the ruling, including the tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles.

In response, the Justice Department have filed an appeal with the US Court of Appeals, and it’s possible that this case could go to the Supreme Court. But we haven’t heard directly from President Trump on the matter yet, so it’s unclear how the administration might respond going forward. This could also have broader revenue implications, as they had been hoping to use tariffs as a source of revenue to fund other tax cuts.

If the ruling did remain in place, preventing the use of tariffs under IEEPA, one option for the administration would be to expand the use of other tariff instruments, like the Section 232 on national security grounds, which have been used for autos, steel and aluminium tariffs. But this is clearly a setback for their tariff strategy, and it’s also going to complicate its current attempts to negotiate concessions from trading partners, given the possibility the tariffs might not come into force once the 90-day extension period is over.

The tariff developments have overshadowed the previous day’s news, but sentiment also got a boost from Nvidia’s results after the US close yesterday, as the company delivered upbeat sales guidance. There was only a modest revenue beat for Q1 ($44.1bn vs $43.3bn expected), but the chip giant projected revenue of $45bn for Q2, meeting analyst expectations even as the company projected that restrictions on shipments of AI chips to China would cost it $8bn in sales. Nvidia’s shares rose by nearly 5% in post-market trading after falling -0.51% in the regular session, and futures on the NASDAQ 100 are up +1.92% this morning. However, before Nvidia’s release, tech stocks had lost ground after the FT reported that the Trump administration had ordered US companies that offer chip design software to stop selling to China. Affected companies slumped on the news, including Cadence Design Systems (-10.67%) and Synopsys (-9.64%), while the Magnificent 7 fell -0.53%, having been near flat prior to the reporting.

With all that in hand, markets in Asia are performing very strongly this morning, with gains for the Nikkei (+1.56%), the KOSPI (+1.76%), the Hang Seng (+0.65%), the CSI 300 (+0.68%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.72%). That outperformance in South Korea also comes after the Bank of Korea delivered a 25bp rate cut overnight, in line with expectations, taking the policy rate down to 2.5%. They also cut their growth forecast for this year to 0.8%.

Before all that, the main story of yesterday had come on the rates side, as bonds came under fresh pressure on both sides of the Atlantic. The main catalyst for that was the weak 40yr auction in Japan we mentioned yesterday, which in turn carried over into the European and US sessions. This saw the 30yr Treasury yield (+2.5bps) move back above 5% intraday, before closing just shy of that at 4.98%. Bonds did reverse some of their initial sell off following a solid 5yr auction that saw primary dealer takeup fall to its lowest in over two years. Still, Treasury yields were higher across the curve, with the 2yr yield up +0.8bps and 10yr yield rising +3.4bps. That move has continued overnight given the risk-on tone, with the 2yr up another +2.5bps to 4.01%, whilst the 10yr is up +2.6bps to 4.50%.

That rise in yields has come as markets continue to dial back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Indeed, the amount priced in by December is now down to just 44bps, the fewest since February. Moreover, there were no hints of imminent easing in yesterday’s Fed minutes, which re-iterated that “the committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlooks for inflation and economic activity” and saw an increased focus on the risk of inflation expectations drifting upward. On the downside, the Fed “staff viewed the possibility that the economy would enter a recession to be almost as likely as the baseline forecast”, though one should note that the meeting was on May 7, shortly before the delay in US-China tariffs.

Back in Europe, sovereign bond yields also moved higher yesterday, which came amidst growing concern about inflation. In part, matters weren’t helped by higher oil prices, with Brent crude up +1.26% on the day to $64.90/bbl. But then we also had the ECB’s latest survey of consumer expectations, which found that 1yr inflation expectations were up to +3.1% in April, the highest in 14 months. So that added to fears that inflation could remain sticky above the ECB’s target, particularly with their next policy decision coming up in just a week.

All that meant yields rose across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (+2.3bps), OATs (+2.0bps) and BTPs (+1.8bps) all moving higher. Yet despite the risk-off tone elsewhere, sovereign bond spreads tightened further, with the 10yr Italian spread over bunds down to just 98bps, the tightest since September 2021. Nevertheless, UK gilts continued to struggle, with the 10yr yield (+6.1bps) seeing a larger increase in yields to 4.73%.

With yields moving higher again, that meant it was a difficult backdrop for equities, which struggled on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the S&P 500 (-0.56%) fell back after the previous day’s +2.05% surge. And over in Europe it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-0.61%), the DAX (-0.78%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.59%) all moving lower. However, one relative outperformer was Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite (+0.05%), which just about managed to eke out another record high, having now advanced for 15 of the last 16 sessions.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q1 GDP, and pending home sales for April. Otherwise, Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee, Kugler, Daly and Logan, along with BoE Governor Bailey.