Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time? Or will the excuse factory be required to spin the Trump-policy-driven price hike expectations as coming next time?
Expectations were for a modest acceleration in prices in June and headline Consumer Prices did just that rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (up from +2.4% prior and hotter than the +2.6% YoY expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
The MoM acceleration was driven by a flip from deflation to inflation for Energy prices…
Source: Bloomberg
The headline CPI YoY is the hottest since February but Core CPI printed cooler than expected (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) with the YoY rise higher at +2.9% (as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Goods prices are accelerating on a YoY basis…
Source: Bloomberg
SuperCore CPI (Services ex-shelter) rose 0.36% MoM, lifting prices 3.34% YoY – highest since feb but well off the YTD highs
Source: Bloomberg
Medical Care Services costs are also starting to accelerate (not exactly tariff-driven)…
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly the damning evidence of terrifying tariff-flation that the establishment wants us to believe is coming…
No inflationary pass throughs. But they will absolutely, definitely show up next month, or maybe the month after, but certainly before 2030.
Because… “The lack of tariff inflation remains transitory” https://t.co/pbD9Cc3owN— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2025
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