The geopolitical powder keg along the heavily disputed Thailand-Cambodia land border has been lit this week, with both countries exchanging heavy fire. Thailand’s acting leader warned on Friday that the conflict could escalate into a war.
Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters earlier, “This situation could potentially develop into a war. At present, it is still considered an armed clash involving heavy weaponry.”
The Thailand and Cambodian conflict is escalating.
Thailand is now deploying its M48A5 tanks toward the front lines.
I go to sleep for 6 hours and there’s a new war. pic.twitter.com/HStHIh4ZPq
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) July 25, 2025
The Thailand-Cambodia conflict marks some of the worst cross-border fighting in decades, with at least 15 people killed so far – mostly civilians and one soldier. As the clashes enter their second day, over 100,000 people have been evacuated from the conflict area.
On Thursday, Thai F-16 fighter jets bombed military targets (read report) in Cambodia. Both Southeast Asian nations have accused each other of starting the conflict.
For over a century, Thailand and Cambodia have disputed sovereignty claims along parts of their shared 508-mile land border. Boundary ambiguities stem from colonial-era treaties and inconsistent mapping practices dating back to the 1907 Franco-Siamese agreement. A notable 2011 skirmish lasted one week with multiple fatalities.
“The root cause of this issue lies in the lingering consequences left by Western colonialists in the past, and it now needs to be faced calmly and handled properly,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn in Beijing.
Media outlet Al Jazeera broke down how Thailand’s military stacks up against Cambodia’s in a side-by-side comparison
Latest overnight headlines from the conflict area, courtesy of Al Jazeera:
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U.S. advises citizens against travel within 50km of Thai-Cambodian border
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China’s Wang says ‘root cause’ of dispute a consequence of Western colonialism
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Thai evacuees brace for long period of uncertainty
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Thailand opting for bilateral solution, Cambodia negative: Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson
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In letter to UN, Thailand blames Cambodia for ‘firing first’
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Cambodian military says Thai forces attack seven locations
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Thailand rejects international mediation to end Cambodia fighting: Report
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More than 138,000 Thai civilians evacuated amid Cambodian border clashes
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Thailand military denies targeting UNESCO World Heritage Site in Cambodia
In markets, Thailand’s baht fell .3% to 32.29 per U.S. dollar. The baht fell to a multi-year…
“We do not expect that the border conflict to have sustained impact on the baht unless it significantly escalates,” said Alan Lau, FX strategist at Maybank.
A crucial understanding of this geopolitical powder keg is the alignment of major powers: China backs Cambodia, while the U.S. is a long-standing ally of Thailand.
So what happens if Thailand invokes its security ties with the U.S. and Cambodia does the same with China?
With U.S.-China tensions already flaring up with trade, technology, and global influence, a localized border conflict could quickly become a dangerous proxy flashpoint between the global superpowers.
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