Reaching net zero carbon emissions is not cheap, if it is even achievable. Some people believe that it is not possible. According to a draft government plan, India, the third largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, will need as much as $21 trillion to achieve its climate goals and lift its population out of poverty. Via Bloomberg, its plan is to hit peak emissions in 2045, and net zero emissions in 2070, seeking to achieve climate and economic development goals simultaneously, with low-carbon options proposed for much of its yet-to-be-built residential and industrial infrastructure. In the past, India’s priorities have been economic growth and energy security, leading it to heavily depend on coal, which provided 75% of its electricity in 2024. According to Bloomberg, much of the draft plan for decarbonizing India’s economy is dependent on technologies that are still under development. For example, the draft plan assumes widespread industrial use of carbon capture technology, which has yet to be tested in the country and has had limited success to date globally.
The Government’s Plan
As reported by Bloomberg, under the plan, the government expects renewables to supply 65% of its total energy mix by 2070, with nuclear accounting for 11%. In 2024, renewables supplied just 3.4% of India’s energy. Coal would provide just 4% in 2070, down from 59% in 2023. Nuclear capacity would need to reach 300 gigawatts, compared with less than nine gigawatts today — a factor increase of 33.
According to Bloomberg, if the country stays on its current trajectory, coal’s share is expected to make up close to 30% of the overall energy mix in 2070, while renewables would account for about a third. Regardless of its climate targets, the country is expected to add a large amount of solar and wind capacity, along with expensive batteries to provide back-up power when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow. It is also expected to move towards greater electrification of its economy.
Despite having a draft plan, India has not yet submitted it to the United Nations. Countries are expected to submit climate plans that extend to 2035 at the U.N. climate summit, Conference of the Parties 30 (COP30), in Brazil next month. China, the world’s largest emitter, has indicated that it expects to reduce emissions by as much as 10% from its peak by 2035. China’s commitment could potentially strengthen its global lead in producing electric vehicles and solar panels.
Few people realize that policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions eat into the hands of China, which is endowed with few oil and gas resources compared to the United States, but has invested in minerals needed for “clean” technologies that make the United States and Europe dependent upon it. The Chinese have spent decades preparing for the West’s energy transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles, and it will take the West decades to catch up. In the meantime, China will be selling its comparably inexpensive electric vehicles, solar panels, and other “green” technologies to Western countries, increasing its economic growth and the wealth of its citizenry.
Net Zero Feasibility
“Net zero 2050 is just a colossal train wreck … It’s just a monstrous human impoverishment program and of course there is no way it is going to happen,” according to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Wright argues that climate change is a global challenge that “deserves attention,” but criticizes “climate alarmists,” particularly since their harsh warnings and climate models have not produced expected results.
Wright has also said, “Net zero 2050 is a sinister goal, it’s a terrible goal. … It’s both unachievable by any practical means [and] the aggressive pursuit of it … has not delivered any benefits, but it’s delivered tremendous costs.” The costs are due to the fact that countries that set net zero goals simply “export your industry,” which is happening in most of Europe. Businesses cannot tolerate the higher energy costs that result from the net zero transition. The fallacy that it will be cheaper is not the case. Those costs are clearly indicated by India’s cost estimate for achieving net zero by 2070, 20 years later than the 2050 goal for industrialized nations.
Analysis
The immense costs that India requires to transition its economy away from natural gas, oil, and coal should come as no surprise, considering the extent to which it relies on these resources, primarily coal. As the second-largest global coal consumer, exceeding the combined coal consumption of Europe and North America in 2023, India is unlikely to replace its coal consumption with intermittent, “green” sources anytime soon. India’s coal consumption should be celebrated as a success story, allowing the country to increase electricity access from 60% in 2000 to nearly 100% in 2025. Because transition from coal to renewables could put these gains at risk, Chris Wright is correct to call all net-zero 2050 “a monstrous human impoverishment program.”
For inquiries, please contact [email protected].
