The United States is no longer linking negotiations for a Saudi nuclear energy program with a normalization deal for Riyadh to recognize Israel based on the Abraham Accords.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in April while on a visit to Saudi Arabia mentioned a “pathway” to a civil nuclear agreement, even though the Saudis were insisting that there would be no normalized ties with Israel until it ceases Gaza military action, and allows for a Palestinian state. This was a first strong hint that the new administration was ready to delink the two issues.
“Dropping the demand that Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel would be a major concession by Washington,” Reuters now reports. “Under former President Joe Biden, nuclear talks were an element of a wider U.S.-Saudi deal tied to normalization and to Riyadh’s goal of a defense treaty with Washington.”
This could pave the way for a Saudi nuclear deal breakthrough during President Trump’s visit next week. Wright explained, “For a US partnership and involvement in nuclear here, there will definitely be a 123 agreement … there’s lots of ways to structure a deal that will accomplish both the Saudi objectives and the American objectives.”
As we detailed previously, US involvement in Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program would require a so-called “123 Agreement,” referring to Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954. This section outlines nine non-proliferation requirements designed to prevent the use of civil nuclear technology for weapons development or the transfer of sensitive materials.
Washington appears to be readying an issuance of official permission regarding this key restriction. After all, Trump typically visits the Gulf while bearing ‘gifts’.
While the Joe Biden White House had sought a broader deal involving nuclear cooperation, security guarantees for the kingdom, and normalization with Israel, Wright’s April remarks focused narrowly on energy partnership. Saudi Arabia aims to expand renewable and nuclear energy as part of its Vision 2030 reforms.
In addition to dropping the demand to normalize with Israel, the US has also nixed efforts to ink a US-Saudi mutual defense treaty with Riyadh. And crucially, these talks to approve a Saudi nuclear program are being advanced without consulting Israel. The Netanyahu government will no doubt reject the possibility of a future nuclear-capable Saudi Arabia.
Israel Hayom has written that “The president won’t be able to get approval to push forward a civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia without the Israeli component,” according to an Israeli official. “He doesn’t have a Senate majority for any agreement that doesn’t include Israel or that moves forward without its consent.”
As for other things Trump is expected to announce on his Gulf tour next week, he will likely to announce a series of new major arms deals with the kingdom. While during his first administration he visited Saudi Arabia very early on, the Saudis have appeared to be lower on the list of priorities this time around.
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