President Trump while on his way back from the G7 summit in Canada, which he cut short short due to the Middle East situation, said to reporters aboard Air Force One Tuesday morning that he wants “a real end” to Iran’s nuclear problem. He expressed his assumption that Iran is “very close” to having nuclear weapons.
He asserted this means nothing less than Tehran “giving up entirely” its enrichment activities. “I didn’t say I was looking for a ceasefire,” he said. This was in follow-up to a scathing message he wrote on Truth Social, saying that French President Emmanuel Macron had “mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a ‘cease fire’ between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”
Late yesterday Trump had issued an unprecedented written message telling some ten million Iranian inhabitants to “immediately evacuate” Tehran amid ongoing Israeli strikes, suggesting that a much bigger assault is coming – a warning made much more ominous by the open secret that Iran possesses nukes.
“You’re going to find out over the next two days. You’re going to find out. Nobody’s slowed up so far,” Trump said further, hours after the evacuation warning – which came just before 3am local time.
But he also caveated that “I may” send US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff or Vice President JD Vance to meet with Iranian officials to seek de-escalation and negotiations. “It depends what happens when I get back,” he added.
What made the whole exchange even more interesting is that all of this was partially in response to a question regarding director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s March testimony that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. Here’s the exchange:
CNN: You’ve always said you don’t believe Iran should have a nuke. Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon.
Trump: I don’t care what she said. They were very close to getting a nuke.
CNN: You’ve always said you don’t believe Iran should have a nuke. Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon.
Trump: I don’t care what she said. They were very close to getting a nuke. pic.twitter.com/YJKMGNlvlz
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 17, 2025
It’s also the case that the CIA’s latest assessment maintains that the Islamic Republic is likely not seeking a nuclear weapon. Crucially this was part of the DNI’s annual threat assessment.
Gabbard had previously firmly stated before the Senate Intelligence Committee that the US intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”
And yet currently, a second US aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz, is en route to Mideast waters, and US Air Force fuel tankers are being positioned in Europe – all for the Pentagon to ready more ‘options’ for President Trump should military action be initiated (Congress might want a word…).
While the tempo of the exchange of strikes have slowed, the exchange of missile fire has persisted…
⚡️Iranian missiles rain down in the vicinity of the Mossad HQ in Herzliya pic.twitter.com/TGpc7QaEvl
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 17, 2025
Gabbard has in hours following Trump’s comments insisted she and Trump are “on the same page” over Iran’s nuclear weapon timeline. “President Trump was saying the same thing that I said in my annual threat assessment back in March in Congress. Unfortunately, too many people in the media don’t care to actually read what I said,” Gabbard told reporters as she arrived on Capitol Hill Tuesday.
Meanwhile, at the G7 which Trump left, a joint statement stress that “Iran can never have a nuclear weapons” while also urging de-escalation of the conflict. It added that Israel has a “right to defend itself” – however, made no mention of the Iranians being able to defend themselves (of course, this new war began with an Israeli aerial attack on the country).
* * *
A note on the latest from Deutsche Bank:
Yesterday became steadily more risk-on with extra momentum from a WSJ report, just under 90 minutes after the US open, which said that Iran was signalling it wanted to end hostilities and restart nuclear talks. So that led to a significant easing of the broad market stress, with the S&P 500 (+0.94%) recovering the vast majority of Friday’s -1.13% decline. Similarly, gold fell -1.37%, reversing the spike that saw it post a new record high on Friday. And in line with that theme, some of the assets most affected by the conflict did very well, with the Israeli shekel seeing its biggest daily gain against the US Dollar (+3.49%) since 1998, with Israel’s TA-35 index (+1.82%) closing at an all-time high.
However, just as markets were getting more comfortable, we’ve seen a bit of a reversal overnight after Trump left the G7 meeting a day early with reports that he has requested the National Security Council to convene on his return to Washington. He posted that “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” There was no extra context. In fact, as DB‘s Michael Hsueh has pointed out, the G7 leaders’ statement was only 121 words, compared with June 2024’s statement of 19,834 words, and Dec 2023’s statement of 5,108 words. It also only discussed the Israel/Iran conflict whereas normally a whole host of topics are covered.
So we’re all in a bit of a limbo in terms of whether anything substantive came out of the summit and whether Trump was alluding to new information with his post and his early G7 meeting departure. Before his post, that WSJ headline was backed up elsewhere. For instance, Reuters reported shortly afterwards that Iran had asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to ask President Trump to get Israel to agree to a ceasefire, in return for more flexibility from Iran in the nuclear talks. And Trump himself later said at the G7 summit that Iran would “like to talk, but they should have done that before”.
There are still big questions as to whether Israel would be receptive to a ceasefire, given that it is seeking to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Moreover, the public rhetoric hasn’t leant that way either, and Iran’s Mehr News Agency cited a senior security official saying that it is prepared to deliver a “major blow” to Israel after its strikes. So there is maybe diplomatic movement behind the scenes but not yet in the open.
“When the missile arrived, we were in the staircase in the building.” Gal told me. “The shock was so huge.” pic.twitter.com/lvLgCTvCpY
— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 16, 2025
Below are more developing events & the latest via Newsquawk
Geopolitics: Latest
- CBS’s Jacobs writes US President Trump said “I didn’t say I was looking for a ceasefire,” he said on AF1. He said he wants “a real end,” with Iran “giving up entirely” on nukes.” On any threat to US interests, he said Iran knows not to touch our troops. US would “come down so hard if they do anything to our people,” he said. Asked his thinking on calling for Tehran to evacuate, he told me he wants “people to be safe.” Asked if US involvement would destroy Iran nuclear program, hope their program “is wiped out long before that.” Trump sounded undecided about sending Witkoff and/or VP Vance to meet with Iran. “I may,” he said. But “it depends what happens when I get back,” he said. Trump declined to say if the chairman of joint chiefs and SecDef have provided him with planning options should Iran attack U.S. bases in Middle East. “I can’t tell you that,” he told me. The Israelis aren’t slowing up their barrage on Iran, he predicted. “You’re going to find out over the next two days. You’re going to find out. Nobody’s slowed up so far.”
- Israeli officials tell Axios that regime change isn’t an official war aim, discussions about it are getting louder and more overt, via Axios.
- Politico Reports: US President Trump will convene his closest military advisers in the Situation Room this morning, where he weighs “whether to join Israel’s bombardment of Iran”.
- US President Trump says he is “looking for better than a ceasefire in Iran”, “not too much in the mood to negotiate with Iran”.
- US President Trump says he has “not reached out to Iran for ‘Peace Talks’ in any way, shape, or form”.
- Senior Iranian Army Commander says attacks against Israel will intensify in the next hours, new wave of drones will hit Israel, via IRNA.
- CNN, citing sources, reports that Iran was up to three years away from being able to produce a nuclear bomb, via Sky News Arabia; US official cited adds that they believe recent Israeli strikes have pushed this back by only a few months.
Strikes
- Iranian ballistic missiles reported over Tel Aviv, via Fox correspondent.
- Iranian media reported several explosions and heavy air defence fire in the capital Tehran; Several explosions east of Tehran amid air defence fire, according to Fars.
- Reports of multiple explosions in Ahvaz – in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan in southwest Iran, according to Iran International.
- Unconfirmed reports noted that three ships are on fire in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, according to several social media accounts. Ambrey later said it is aware of an incident 22 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan in UAE (close to the Strait of Hormuz). Incident in Khor Fakkan near the Strait of Hormuz seemingly was caused by two vessels colliding, according to Kpler’s Bakr citing their terminal
- IAEA Director Grossi said the damage recorded at Fordow was very limited, underground spaces at the Isfahan facility do not appear to have been affected.
Diplomacy
- US President Trump directed members of his team to attempt a meeting with Iranian officials as quickly as possible, according to CNN sources.
- Trump team proposes Iran talks this week on nuclear deal and ceasefire, according to Axios. The White House is discussing with Iran the possibility of a meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to four sources briefed on the issue.
- Israeli media reports that Trump is preparing to make a ‘final offer’ to Iran in the coming days, according to Spectator Index.
- US President Trump said Iran should have signed the deal, Iran wants to make a deal, according to Reuters.
- French President Macron said Americans have made an offer to meet with Iranians, now will see what happens. Macron said European partners are ready to take part in serious Iran nuclear negotiations if a ceasefire is reached. Macron said Trump told G7 leaders there were discussions to obtain a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
According to CNN, US intelligence assessments said before Israel’s attack last week that not only was Iran not pursuing a nuclear weapon, if it chose to do so, it would have taken three years to produce and deliver one. pic.twitter.com/Ss1LBE52YT
— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) June 17, 2025
Trump
- US President Trump posted “Iran should have signed the “deal,” I told them to sign…IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON… Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
- US President Trump posted “AMERICA FIRST means many GREAT things, including the fact that IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
- “President Trump is leaving the G7 summit EARLY and will return to DC tonight.”, according to CNN reporter; Bloomberg suggests due to the Middle East crisis.
- US President Trump requested the National Security Council be prepared in the Situation Room, according to reports citing Fox.
- “US is NOT joining Israel offensively in its military operation, per US officials. Despite reports that President Trump asked the NSC and Situation Room to be readied,” according to CBS’ Jacobs.
- CBS’ Jacobs posted “Trump isn’t leaving [right now] because of discussions for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, I’m told…He is leaving G7 halfway through. Not entirely clear why”.
- US President Trump posts that his return to Washington had nothing to do with a ceasefire.
Allies
- Trump admin reportedly told several Middle Eastern allies on Sunday that it doesn’t plan to get actively involved in the war between Israel and Iran unless Iran targets Americans, according to Axios sources
- US is sending another aircraft carrier, and more warships to the Middle East, according to NBC.
- US Defense Secretary Hegseth said over the weekend he directed the deployment of additional capabilities to the US CENTCOM; additional deployments are intended to enhance the defensive posture in the region, according to Reuters.
- US Defense Secretary Hegseth said US President Trump still aims for a nuclear deal with Iran, via Fox News; assets in the region will be defended.
- White House aide said it is not true that the US is attacking Iran; says American forces are maintaining their defensive posture.
- “This may really be the last chance for the Iranians before the US actively joins”, according to journalist Stein citing a US source.
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