In November 2022 the (former) President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski published a 10 point ‘peace plan’.
It included:
5. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according the U.N. Charter, which Zelenskiy said is “not up to negotiations”.
6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia.
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10. Confirmation of the war’s end, including a document signed by the involved parties.
In September 2024 Zelenski raised the curtain of his Victory Plan for Ukraine. As I wrote at that time:
The ‘victory plan’ is not about a real plan for Ukraine’s action but a list of demands towards the ‘western’ supporters of Ukraine.
The theory in Kiev is that a fulfillment of these demands will allow Ukraine to win the war and to press Russian into accepting Ukraine’s 10 point ‘peace plan‘.
As explained by a Zelinski advisor:
A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent that the “victory plan” aims “to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit.”
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“The problem is, to get to that point where we have any sort of peace negotiations, Russia must feel like they’re going to lose, and we are not there yet,” Rep. Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee in Congress, told the Kyiv Independent.
“I hope part of this victory plan is how we can shape battlefield conditions to reach that point,” said Panetta, who met Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials in Kyiv last weekend.
I commented that:
The ‘victory plan’ requests are of course outrageous and delusional and have little to no chance to be fulfilled.
Nearly a year later the delusional demands of the 10 points ‘peace plan’ and the Victory Plan have made room for more realistic expectations. There will be no NATO or EU membership for Ukraine. It will lose a significant part of its land to Russia and will have to settle the war under Russian conditions.
Zelenski seems to now acknowledge that when he redefines what victory means:
Zelenskyy spoke to ABC News Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz Friday in an interview that aired on ABC News’ “This Week” on Sunday.
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Asked by Raddatz what victory looks like for his embattled country, Zelenskyy said the survival of Ukraine.
“Putin’s goal is to occupy Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said.
“[Putin] wants, of course, to occupy us totally. For him, this [is] victory. And until he can do it, the victory is on our side,” he said. “So that’s why for us to survive is a victory. Because we are surviving with our identity, with our country, with our independence.”
There is zero evidence that Putin’s, or -more correct- Russia’s goal was or is to occupy Ukraine.Russia wants to liberate the Russian population that, since the 1990s, was trapped in east Ukraine. He wants to prevent that Ukraine joins NATO. Neither requires the Russian army to move into the feverish anti-Russia center and western parts of Ukraine.
But it is of course convenient to claim that and to declare victory even after the government has moved to Lviv (aka Lvov, Lemberg) near the Polish border and called it a day.
I just wonder how the population there would react if Zelenski or his successor were then to arrange a well deserved Victory parade.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
