Even as housing prices look stretched and a divisive new mayor prepares to take office, Manhattan’s Upper West Side is running short on new homes, according to Bloomberg.
Only 51 new condo units are expected to be completed in the neighborhood through 2028, according to Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group — a 94% drop from the 869 units added between 2016 and 2019. It’s the steepest decline among Manhattan neighborhoods tracked by the firm.
The shortage comes as demand for new construction surges. “There’s been more demand on new stuff than ever before,” said Lisa Lippman, a broker at Brown Harris Stevens. “We saw people turn away from prewars for new development with central air and instant gratification.”
Buyers have been favoring move-in-ready condos over older co-ops, deterred by renovation costs and strict board rules. In the third quarter, sales at new developments jumped 41% from a year earlier, while resales were largely flat, Corcoran data show. The neighborhood’s median price rose 8%, and homes spent a median of just 76 days on the market — the fastest in Manhattan, according to StreetEasy.
Developers have reaped the benefits. The Henry, a 45-unit project on West 84th Street by Naftali Group, is 70% sold since its September 2024 launch. Toll Brothers’ 81-unit Rockwell on West 103rd Street is 86% sold, according to Marketproof. Overall, new Upper West Side projects have sold 66% of their units, outpacing Manhattan’s 55% average.
But prices remain steep. The lowest sale at Extell Development’s 50 W. 66th St. came in at $3.6 million, while resale condos averaged $1.6 million in the third quarter. “Just like with anything, when there’s demand and little inventory, the price of Upper West Side apartments will go up,” said Miki Naftali, chief executive officer of Naftali Group.
Bloomberg writes that the pipeline is drying up for structural reasons as well. The Upper West Side has few conversion-ready office buildings and is heavily constrained by historic-district rules. Local resistance to taller towers has intensified, with lawsuits targeting Extell’s 69-story 50 W. 66th St. project, where a penthouse is listed for $85 million. Extell’s next plan — a 1,200-foot tower at the former ABC headquarters — would be the neighborhood’s tallest. The developer said it “is prepared to collaborate with community leaders” and has “voluntarily proposed” adding affordable units.
A 2019 law effectively shut down another source of new supply: rental-to-condo conversions. “Rental-to-condo conversions were one of the faster ways to add for-sale inventory and were a significant contributor to supply in the past,” said John Tashjian of Centurion Real Estate Partners. “That opportunity is closed.”
High borrowing costs and expensive land have made entry-level projects “almost impossible,” said Kelly Mack, president of Corcoran Sunshine. “It’s almost impossible to bring to market a building where they can sell at the entry-level price point.”
For longtime residents, the result is a neighborhood that feels increasingly out of reach. “These days, you have to be really rich to live here,” said Marcia Kaufman, 70, a retired teacher who recently bought an apartment at 212 W. 72nd St. “For families, it’s very, very difficult. There’s not enough space — and what you’re getting for what you’re paying isn’t much.”
We’ll see how long this condo shortage lasts once Mayor Mamdani gets his hands on the city…
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