Arabica coffee futures in New York jumped nearly 4% to $4.36 a pound – a new record high – amid renewed concerns that adverse weather conditions may impact Brazilian exports. These concerns were previously highlighted in our mid-September coffee report, which warned of ongoing “weather disasters” in Brazil that could threaten global production.
Arabica, the premium bean used by Starbucks, Dunkin’, and other chains, had set the previous record of $4.2995 a pound in February amid rising fears that top grower Brazil would export fewer beans.
In a mid-August report, we cited Maja Wallengren, Danish-born independent coffee market reporter and founder of SpillingTheBean, who warned that adverse weather across key coffee-producing areas in Brazil, including the entire Cerrado Mineiro region and parts of Southern Minas, had experienced “frost damage” severe enough to be a potential “death blow” to the 2026 harvest.
Coffee Analyst Warns Brazil Frost Could Deliver “Death Blow” To 2026 Harvest https://t.co/h33Dp3r7Ge
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2025
Wallengren fired off numerous X posts this week, amid surging coffee futures, warning about supply woes coming out of Brazil:
VERY BAD NEWS from Brazil continue to worsen, with ongoing SEVERE drought coupled with EXTREME heat about to wipe out all hopes left for even a REMOTELY medium-good 2nd flowering after the 1st 2026 crop flowering FAILED to generate much fruit. The World IS RUNNING OUT OF COFFEE !
Arabica coffee continued to RALLY on the fast expanding CROP DISASTER in Brazil and daily growing global SUPPLY DEFICIT,
You are totally right my dear Ernie, because regardless of where the US Tariff-game ends, and regardless of how much and if and when the EUDR may MAY be implemented, none of this will change the fact that the world of #coffee is facing an UNPRECEDENTED supply deficit with ZERO hope for #KC supply recovery until 2029-2030 earliest !!
If #KC tariffs are reduced NONE OF THIS will help bring a recovery to the supply that is not there and the #COFFEE IS NOT THERE – and it won’t come in from ANY NEW CROPS in time to cover WINTER CONSUMPTION demand !!
BRAZIL coffee exports are in near FREE-FALL for this entire year, running about 8M-9M bags BELOW year ago level so fa
Traditionally yes, but there is NOTHING traditional about everything currently taking place in the global #coffee market because the #KC commercial players – roasters in particular – have NO RESCUE SOURCES for the coffee supply they need and the coffee will NOT ARRIVE because there is simply not enough for all to go around !! Also, the whole “tariff-issue” is beyond ridiculous, just see how Barchart one day will say lower tariffs is bullish and the next day it’s bearish – the fact is when there is such a HUGE and UNPRECEDENTED supply deficit with ZERO hopes of recovery in the global supply chain until 2029-2030 earliest, the CORE FUNDAMENTALS – shortage – will rule and hence as I have said all along #KC is just about to get started on the next push toward the $5-$6 mark. Sure, any change in Tariff-policy may delay this push, but it will be short-lived bcs the coffee is not there BUT the KEY WINTER consumption season is just around the corner !!
Perhaps, but paper contracts cannot be delivered or roasted, and ACTUAL commercials in the entire #coffee chain will have to take PHYSICAL delivery of coffee to sustain and maintain business operations, and when that time comes – very very soon because of the WINTER season in the entire Northern Hemisphere – then it doesn’t matter what paper positions are because the COFFEE IS AND WILL STILL NOT be there !! In the unlikely event of bears succeeding in bringing #KC a bit down – and that is the most they MAY accomplish – the REAL prices will be adjusted upward to the $5-$6 range through premiums. And while I have told and keep telling growers across the world that they shld not be greedy – especially those who have sold to Specialty clients well above #KC for many years – I also keep telling EVERYBODY that NO-ONE in the #coffee trade can expect growers to sell below the market price !! And to ALL FOLLOWING the #coffee conversation here, pls do remember that WITHOUT THE COFFEE GROWER, small or large, there wld be NO MARKET to profit from and NO coffee to enjoy !!
Yes the #KC market in this UNPRECEDENTED situation which the gobal #coffee market NEVER IN HISTORY has wittnessee absolutely NEEDS to see the supply IN IMPORTING ports – if there was abundant stocks it wld be different like in over 315 years of commercial COFFEE EXPORTING history – instead there is only 3-4 weeks left most of which is in Europe and U.S. market simply DOES NOT have enough physical supply at hand AS PER THE VOLUMES it has grown acustomed !!
*BREAKING #KC: Arabica #coffee CONTINUES HISTORIC RALLY and is now within 15 cents from NEW HISTORIC HIGHS closing in on $4.50, with NEW ALL TIME HIGH for Dec contract at intraday high at $4.3510 and still holding on to most gains up 9.25c/lb at $4.3010 in IMPRESSIVE PRICE ACTION… https://t.co/1otl9zR8p7 pic.twitter.com/c6RvNMwmFP
— Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean) October 23, 2025
FYI:
☕ Countries which are Biggest Exporters of Coffee in the World 2024 ☕
1. Brazil 🇧🇷 – $11.4 Bn
2. Vietnam 🇻🇳 – $4.2 Bn
3. Switzerland 🇨🇭 – $3.9 Bn
4. Germany 🇩🇪 – $3.8 Bn
5. Colombia 🇨🇴 – $3.5 Bn
6. Italy 🇮🇹 – $2.8 Bn
7. Indonesia 🇮🇩 – $1.6 Bn
8. Ethiopia 🇪🇹 – $1.5 Bn
9.… pic.twitter.com/btXv5SGdEb— World of StatHistics (@Stat_Cult) October 15, 2025
Given the troubling supply dynamics building in Brazil, it’s probably not a bad idea to start building up your own pantry reserves. Find here.
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