Zohran Mamdani Tops the NYC Mayoral Primary

Good morning:

This week, 33-year-old socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani emerged as the likely Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City. His main challenger, former governor Andrew Cuomo, conceded the race on Tuesday night.

The final results will still undergo ranked-choice tabulation, but Mamdani is likely to have achieved a significant upset against established Democrats in the city and is well-positioned to take on incumbent mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa in the general election.

MI staff and scholars will continue to weigh in on the ongoing mayoral race and what the policy proposals from Mamdani and the other candidates will mean for NYC.

In the meantime, senior fellow Nicole Gelinas writes in the New York Times about the significance of Democratic candidates moving left on the issue of policing and the impact it may have on the final vote. In short, veteran NYC candidates lost voters’ confidence on safety, the city’s core issue. That left an opening for Mamdani and Cuomo to dominate the race. And, in City Journal, senior fellow Eric Kober looks at the race in the context of NYC geography. Where Mamdani and Cuomo’s separate voter bases live across assembly districts may explain why the center-right position fails to gain traction among New Yorkers.

In other news, fellow Daniel Di Martino writes for the New York Post about the additional appropriations made for immigration judges and staff included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” A more robust court system dealing with asylum claims is essential to the Trump administration’s immigration agenda and, although the proposed $1.25 billion is a good start, Di Martino warns that it falls far short of what is needed.

Fellow Colin Wright reviews the findings of a new paper published in Discover Mental Health, which compiles studies, case reports, and group data to summarize the serious health risks associated with long-term estrogen use in males. In City Journal, Wright warns that as more young people pursue medical transitions without the benefit of long-term studies, the medical establishment must be “willing to follow the facts where they lead.” This new paper can help point them in the right direction.

Also in City Journal, MI president Reihan Salam reflects that technological advancements—like Waymo’s autonomous vehicles, which were torched by protestors in the recent Los Angeles riots—may make low-skill immigration less essential to U.S. cities. The classic argument is that low-skilled immigrants do the jobs Americans won’t do. But, Salam asks, “what happens when robots can do them instead?”

Finally, MI senior fellow Stephen Eide published a report today on the future of federal housing policy as it relates to homelessness. The “Housing First” status quo—which emphasizes permanent housing as the solution to homelessness, is ineffective. Eide makes multiple recommendations, like temporary housing and increased reliance on behavioral health systems, for a more flexible and effective federal response.

There are many more insights in this week’s edition of the MI Weekly. Please continue reading for more of our scholars’ work.

Kelsey Bloom

Editorial Director

The Future of Housing for the Homeless

By Stephen Eide | Manhattan Institute

Over the last decade, permanent supportive housing (PSH)—which pairs rental assistance with voluntary social services—has become a central part of U.S. homelessness policy. But the model, and the broader “Housing First” philosophy behind it, has failed to deliver. Despite a 25% increase in PSH units since 2014, homelessness has climbed to record highs.

In a new Manhattan Institute report, senior fellow Stephen Eide explains why PSH is falling short—and why reform is urgently needed.

As Eide shows, the model has inherent flaws that will hamper further expansion. It prioritizes the hardest-to-serve cases but refuses to impose structure or expectations. It’s difficult to scale, and its already limited impact on homelessness tends to fade over time. Meanwhile, aging buildings drive up maintenance costs, and community opposition continues to mount.

Eide proposes a reset: decouple PSH from Housing First, expand shelter and temporary housing options, create treatment courts for housing, and shift responsibility for the most difficult cases to behavioral health systems. Supportive housing still has an important role to play—but the federal government must give providers the flexibility to make it work.

Candidates’ Shift on Crime Turned the Mayor’s Race Upside Down

By Nicole Gelinas | The New York Times

“It’s a shame that the two candidates who could have given Mr. (Andrew) Cuomo and Mr. (Zohran) Mamdani more of a challenge — Comptroller Brad Lander and his predecessor Scott Stringer — put themselves in a no man’s land by turning left during Bill de Blasio’s mayoralty and the ‘defund the police’ movement and then following voters’ shift to the middle when crime rose. …

“As has proved true in other municipal elections over the past few years, public safety remains a dominant issue for voters, along with affordability. Though homicides have fallen to pre-2020 record lows, felonies remain 31.2 percent above 2019’s level. Voters remain nearly as concerned about safety as they were in 2021, when they overlooked warning signs about ethics and management to elect Eric Adams, a former police captain who ran on restoring order, as mayor. … These days no candidate talks about ‘defund the police.’”

Why Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Is Failing the Migrant Crisis

By Daniel Di Martino | New York Post

“President Trump vowed to restore order through mass deportations — and he can, but only if Congress does its part. That means recognizing the core problem that’s too often ignored: without a functioning immigration court system, no one can actually be deported. Right now, more than 4 million migrant cases are languishing in limbo, inviting new waves of illegal immigration. The message this sends is to cross the border and work freely for up to 10 years while waiting for a hearing until it is inhumane to be deported.

“Congress is starting to notice. Buried in the House’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is $1.25 billion in funding to hire 250 immigration judges and their staff. Extra judges is welcome news, but the appropriation is insufficient.”

There’s No Hope for the Center-Right in New York’s Mayoral Race

By Eric Kober | City Journal

“In New York City, center-right reform tends to follow crisis, not precede it. Michael Bloomberg’s rezoning agenda emerged from post-9/11 uncertainty. (Andrew) Cuomo advanced pension reform in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Eric Adams, with Speaker Adrienne Adams, enacted the ‘City of Yes’ after a sharp drop in rental vacancy rates triggered by the 2019 rent regulation law.

“As mayor, … Mamdani might find himself forced to pursue reforms that his coalition would reject in calmer times. But for those hoping for a center-right renewal, the likeliest scenario over the next four years is a mix of shortsighted policies and the continued slow decline of a once-great city.”

A New Paper Reveals Devastating Harms of Cross-Sex Hormones

By Colin Wright | City Journal

“The value of this (new) paper lies in its wide-angle view of risks that activist and medical circles have too often downplayed or ignored. While the findings don’t amount to conclusive proof of harm in every case, they make a compelling case for caution, transparency, and scientific integrity—qualities frequently missing in the rush to medicalize gender distress.

“That this kind of research is only now being done—after thousands of teens have already started irreversible treatments—is troubling. That many of the safety signals are only now becoming detectable—because so many people have recently been exposed to these interventions—should be a sobering wake-up call.”

Manhattan Institute Heads to Sun Valley, Idaho

In collaboration with the Sun Valley Policy Forum (SVPF), several luminaries from the Manhattan Institute will speak at this year’s SVPF Summer Institute, on July 1st and 2nd. This two-day conference retreat will be held in the premier mountain town of Sun Valley, Idaho. Reihan Salam (Manhattan Institute President), Jesse Arm (Manhattan Institute Executive Director of External Affairs & Chief of Staff), Heather Mac Donald (Thomas W. Smith Fellow and Contributing Editor of City Journal), and Senior Fellows Jason Riley and Abigail Shrier will be featured in the programming, along with other notable thought leaders.

As a benefit to MI Weekly readers, Reserve ticket bundle registrations will be upgraded to the Bronze pass level, which includes access to a private cocktail party. For more information on the program go here, to register with MI benefits go here.  

What the Burning of Waymos Tells us About Immigration  

By Reihan Salam | Manhattan Institute

“Robotaxis point to a future where many of the strenuous, repetitive, and even dangerous low-wage jobs now done by low-skill workers could instead be done by intelligent machines. These robots won’t need subsidized medical care, housing, or public assistance, and they won’t go on strike for higher wages or protest ICE immigration raids.

“By burning Waymos, the L.A. vandals raised a discomfiting question: If the classic case for openness to low-skill immigration is that newcomers do the jobs that Americans won’t do, what happens when robots can do them instead? …

“The real case for low-skill immigration in the age of Waymo isn’t economic, as there is more than one way to build a prosperous modern economy. Rather, it is the cosmopolitan conviction that borders are morally arbitrary.”

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